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Strategies & Market Trends : JAPAN-Nikkei-Time to go back up? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: borb who wrote (2118)	11/3/1999 8:46:00 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3902

1. Invest in Japanese international/multinational companies. These companies are selling products overseas and US. Therefore, they must face Y2K problem to sell the product. Well that theory only really carries weight through the end of this month. There is a increase in economic activity as companies build inventories as contingency plans in preparation for Y2K. I heard called going from "just in time" inventory, back to "just in case". That inventory will be expended during the 1st and 2nd quarter of 2000, and some are predicting the likelihood of a mild global recession as the likely impacts in the emerging market economies may send a shiver through the capital markets. Hopefully, enough nations have sufficient head-up that they can mitigate the impacts of any disruptions. Certainly the Japanese people are relatively well-prepared given their propensity for earthquakes. So the question is if the Nikkei is topping out now, then where will its bottom be. Will it retrace back to 13-15,000 and consolidate there as Japanese interest rates are forced to rise, raising the strength of the yen even more, as well as boosting the return of JGB over equities. And seeing the yen rise even more is detrimental to exports. I really watching to see how the Japanese institutions make good on the estimated $12 Trillion worth of bonds that begin coming due next year. I suspect the printing presses will be forced to operate overtime. A lot of variables which are tough to gameplay..... But when it is hard to get a clear picture of the Japanese financial morass, the risk/reward scenario increases. Look at some of the other Asian economies as a potential alternative. I would likely rather be in Thailand equities, or maybe Korea, than in Japan. More growth potential there, and they are competitors to Japan, Inc. Regards, Ron