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Technology Stocks : Newbridge Networks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Investor2 who wrote (14186)	11/2/1999 12:22:00 PM
From: gbh	Respond to of 18016

I listened to the call until about 9:20am. Not sure how long it went after that. Here's my take on what I heard re: the point Terry emphasized the most, 50G and 450G ATM switching: Any hope of future growth, both top line and bottom line, will be hinged on the deployment of broadband services, both wireless (LMDS) and wire (DSL/cable), by carriers. The deployment of these services will drive the need for core ATM products. NN "should deliver" the 50G 36170 follow-on this quarter (this month?) into around 10 trials. They should see some revenue in 4Q, and significant revenue next fiscal year. In the mean time, things could very tough (my own opinion). The 450G switch (wasn't this a 320G switch not too long ago) will also be needed soon by carriers. Terry never mentioned a delivery date into trials, or product. Knowing a bit about ATM switch design, a 450G switch would be a truly miraculous effort, one I would not put much credence in at this point. (Sorry Pat). The industry leader right now, in true, low latency cell throughput, is FORE at 40GB/s, so right now, I'd have to say this 450G switch will sit alongside the 36190 switch in the product catalog. I'll believe it when I see it, and IMO, analysts and customers may feel the same way. So we have to fall back to the 50G switch for at least a year, maybe more, IMO. By Terry's own admission in the CC, carriers who want to proliferate ATM in the core (and this isn't all of them, by any stretch) are already asking for 50 to 100G. So who will be able to deliver 100G soon? The ASND 550 switch is 25G and 2 years old. Its not a difficult stretch to think they will be at 100G very soon. And FORE, long the ATM enterprise vendor, already at 40G (almost 2 years old), will likely deliver 160G soon. GEC must have seen something they liked when they bought FORE, and this is likely it. Terry also mentioned a NT 5000? switch that I am not familiar with, but I will check it out. So the real question is will the 50G be able to compete in the core (especially in the US) for the next 12 to 18 months? Each of us will have to make our own judgement. Gary