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Technology Stocks : Newbridge Networks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mr.Fun who wrote (14204)	11/2/1999 2:27:00 PM
From: Goldbug Guru	Respond to of 18016

Right now I don't have Newbridge. Even if I buy it I don't plan to hold it for long term. Newbridge mangement team kind of remind me of compaq, just when you think you're out of the wood another bomb drops on you. I'll take your advice & hold off for now.

To: Mr.Fun who wrote (14204)	11/2/1999 3:32:00 PM
From: gbh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18016

Mr. Fun, thanks for the insight. The only argument I'd have is your comparison company. I think NN looks much more like CS than SHVA. SHVA's business went kaput very quickly. NN, like CS, is seeing its business whither away. I know you follow LU very closely, and its current issues with its balance sheet. Would you guess that NN (ie, Lutz) scammed last quarter's receivables for a 1 quarter reprieve? The receivables growth last quarter was very high. Also, this 8 to 10 cents nonsense is reprehensible. Anyone wanna bet the actual number is 10 or 11 cents? As if they didn't already know. As if they didn't already know a week ago. Gary

To: Mr.Fun who wrote (14204)	11/2/1999 5:29:00 PM
From: mrclinton	Respond to of 18016

Sheesh I fair amount of valid insight here, If I may add some remarks "NN has been living off of the anchor tenant customers signed in 1997 and is now about where Cascade was in the product life cycle around March of 97." I think you're being a tad optimistic here, as you say DT is putting in GX550 like they are going out of fashion. For them not to go with Siemens is a big departure, this decision would not have been taken lightly. Carrier ATM is rapidly becoming a Lucent run party, but there are a lot of operators who getting religious about IP versus ATM. Cisco Lucent and Nortel all can position products to appeal to either mindset and have Cisco and Lucent both have MPLS offerings for quality IP services on their ATM switches. Newbridge embraced this strategy late after flirting with MPOA and don't really have the basis for a good MPLS product. This combined with their lack of a pure IP over SONET offering is going to leave them struggling going forward whilst Cisco Nortel Lucent and Juniper will succeed. In the speeds and feeds war NN are way behind the competition. 50 Gig switches are not enough when Nexabit and others are promising terrabit solutions in the same timeframe. If I were an optimist, The most I would expect from a buyout would be $25 including merger speculation plus premium.

To: Mr.Fun who wrote (14204)	11/2/1999 5:47:00 PM
From: Serge Collins	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18016

Mr.Fun: Excellent post. One of the most insightful messages ever posted to this thread. Good insight is hard to come by on a lot of these message boards, and good insight is really all that matters, the rest is just noise. By the way, a lot of comparisons are being thrown about. Here's another...Terry Matthews reminds me a lot of Ray Loewen, the founder and now disgraced former CEO of Loewen Group. Mr. Loewen was so stubborn that he refused to accept a takeover offer from SCI Corp. valued at about $40 per share, and allowed his company, and by extension, the stock of the company, to totally collapse. For the sake of the employees of Newbridge, and its beleaguered shareholders, we can only hope this doesn't happen again. It's a cutthroat world out there and it will be very hard for a niche player to make it on its own. The writing was on the wall when the Ascends and Bay Networks of the world started being acquired. The problem now for Newbridge is that even if it wanted to entertain an offer, that offer will be hard to come by, even at today's price.

To: Mr.Fun who wrote (14204)	11/3/1999 1:37:00 PM
From: MikeM54321	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18016

"c) TM is right that ATM is finding its way into the core of telco networks, but curiously I believe it works to NN's disadvantage. There is strong scuttlebutt that LU and NT are battling for the ATM based backbone at SBC, a traditional NN customer. SBC is unlikely to entrust the mission critical core of its network to NN, when NN is reeling financially and may be sold to a variety of possible players." Mr. Fun, Excellent post. Thanks. But apparently SBC is still going to be giving Newbridge some contracts. As you can see in the press release(Project Pronto), they are likely hedging their bets somewhat by also choosing Lucent and Nortel. Hard to guess how they will divy it up at this point. Do you have any stats on what NN currently has out their in SBC's territories? Could be crucial when it comes time to purchase the DSL line cards. MikeM(From Florida)