Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: benwood who wrote (69939)	11/2/1999 1:51:00 PM
From: BGR	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Ben, Agreed about the probabilities. A mania may not be objectively defined, so I guess any discussion there is subjective at best and idiosyncratic at worst, hence I will pass. However, either all manias do not end in crashes, or they do, but manias are rare to start with, as crashes are rare. Note, however, that the 1929 post-crash depression was largely a creation of the then Fed, and there was none in 1987 as the Fed acted sensibly. That further lowers the probability of a post-crash depression following a mania, if indeed detected. -BGR.