To: long-gone who wrote (44482 ) 11/2/1999 10:58:00 PM From: Alex Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116762
AUSTRALIA PRECIOUS, BASE METALS OUTLOOK POSITIVE: RESEARCH <Picture> MELBOURNE, Nov 03, 1999 (Asia Pulse via COMTEX) -- The outlook next year for both precious and base metals was positive, a commodities expert predicted today. JB Were & Son commodities researcher Malcolm Southwood said gold prices were forecast to trade above and below a $US350 an ounce price range in the long-term. "The price of gold is likely to return to the $US350 level sooner rather than later," he said. Following on from the lift in the price after the European central banks placed a limit on sales, there would be a deficit in the physical market for gold. Southwood told the 7th Victorian Resources Conference that he anticipated demand for gold would reach new record levels in the second quarter as the physical deficit increased. Southwood said the group"s forecast for base metal prices in 2000 was generally cautious compared with the consensus. JB Were forecasts an average price of 65 US cents per pound for aluminium, compared with a consensus forecast of 71 US cents, for copper price of 87 US cents/lb compared with consensus 81 US cents, for nickel US$3.05/lb against consensus of $3.35/lb and for zinc, 50 US cents/lb against a consensus of 54 US cents/lb. Southwood said the recovery in commodities prices was still "very much intact and very much under way". He said there was a feeling within the industry that macro-economic factors have a major influence on prices. "The metals industry is of the view that these issues will surprise us on the upside," he said. "Metals prices have improved considerably since March this year and we expect the recovery trend to continue through 2000. "Unfortunately there is a complication and that arises because of the Y2K effect." Southwood said Y2K had been seen as a potential positive for metal prices but it was shaping up differently. There was an expectation of significant stock building by consumers of metal - with a potential positive knock on for prices - but that had not eventuated, he said. "Prices have reacted to Y2K but more due to the trading patterns adopted by the funds than a build up of physical inventory." The funds have been buying LME dates this side of the millennium and selling early 2000 dates, he said. "This has tended to inflate nearby prices and deflate forward prices," he said. However, Southwood said the physical demand for base metals was likely to be strong enough to support prices at current levels for the fourth quarter. ASIA PULSE -0- (C) 1999 Asia Pulse Pte Ltd