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Technology Stocks : Baltimore Technologies ( BALT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: conor00 who wrote (32)11/2/1999 9:23:00 PM
From: Tom Drolet  Respond to of 66
 
Conor00:

First off-- a real welcome for our first southern greenland Poster to the thread. To get on your good side as quickly as possible--I am 3/4 Irish. The other 1/4 is a hybrid of the G7 countries-- with Quebecois thrown in at th last. Off the boat from Liverpool back in the 1780's or so.

I am the furthest thing possible from an expert on market valuations. But your challenge is real so let me think on the mechanics for a bit (ie --phone my broker tomorrow and ask 20 questions) and then post back--ETA 24 hours.

Gut trading experience says to me however, that this continent (mostly the US of A-- we Chanuks are conservative by nature)-- is a crazy hotbed of speculative money-- that ratchet's any new fade up till it busts. Then a quieter second wave will start after a pause for those companies that have real underlying future value that you can at least smell- if not touch and analyse.

IMO-- therein lies BALT. Yes it has good management, yes it is in 'the' fade field, yes it is making the right moves. But momentum, will takeover for a week or two-- then a correction -- then a concerted build as the analysts this side of the pond start to humm and think.

Utterly crazy guess on my part-- up to $50 in the next week based on press and hot money-- set back to the high 30's then the analysts will start to watch by the turn of the year. On perceived merit (something to do with your logical sounding Irish valuation process) out will pop a theory on relative merit compared to Verisign/Entrust etc. Then a relative rating will settle in. Notice I have not said P/E ratio once?

Best I got on a cold and stormy/blustery night here in Toronto.

Would like to hear further of your impressions of Fran Rooney and the management team.

calypso is very good at these types of companies--I look forward to that pound of wisdom.

Best regards Tom D.



To: conor00 who wrote (32)11/2/1999 11:02:00 PM
From: caly  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 66
 
Welcome Conor00!

The best I can do regarding Irish blood is about 3/128ths. I hope I can still play with you two. : )

I'm also not well-versed in market valuation. I actually like to borrow from a real estate expression in this area: Three things matter regarding stock valuation these days...potential, potential, potential.

What impresses me about Baltimore is how much momentum they're gathering in industry. A couple of years ago, hardly anybody had heard of them. Now when the topic of Certificate Authority compatibility comes up, the three biggies are immediately mentioned: Verisign, Entrust and Baltimore. You have to work with all three to be able to play in the PKI game.

And if I had to guess, I'd say Baltimore is gaining ground because of their commitment to open standards.

Cheers.



To: conor00 who wrote (32)11/3/1999 6:04:00 AM
From: Tom Drolet  Respond to of 66
 
conor00:

On the comparator issue--VRSN and ENTU-- lets pause and take a wee peek. I'll stay in US $ just for comparison apples and apples.

Verisign-- acknowledged leader--$ 155 US (after popping 23 yesterday because of a mid sized deal with Dun & Bradstreet-- go figure!-- we call it the "guilty by known name syndrome" [GKNS] here in crazy marketland).

Entrust-ENTU--$25 9/19 US

Baltimore-- about $25 US

I would personally equate ENTU and BALT pretty close in calypso's all important potential measure-- with BALT having the 'today' (only due yesterday's announcements) lead in GKNS.

That said-- ENTU has a strong parent-NT- (inside track on some deals), is very well managed and is Chanuk by birth ( what can I say!)

With time, we all might keep our eye on the merger potential amoungst these good companies, and by the way-- add in Aether Systems (AETH-- though it is somewhat separate in its business focus). ie-- the 'who gobbles who' never ending game.

Regards Tom D.