To: marc chatman who wrote (53891 ) 11/2/1999 5:54:00 PM From: Gary Burton Read Replies (2) | Respond to
Marc--To answer your question as best I can----Off the 65ish Low, there is a structure under Elliott that consists of 5 subwaves up, but where subwave 4 down drops under the top of subwave 1 up, like a spring--It's called a "beginning diagonal" for a Wave 1--the KEY thing being that each of subwaves 1,3 and 5 are themselves "impulsive" 5 subwaves (ie straight up and not 'abc')------BUT-----there is another structure off the 65 low which has the same appearance as a 'beginning diagonal' except that each of subwaves 1,3,and 5 are THREE wave abc's in their own right.--Such a rising triangle wedge (abcde instead of 12345) is BEARISH, implying the next move after the end of the wedge is DOWN to likely new lows-----Until this morning, I had figured that each of the upwaves of the Structure rising from 65ish looked to be 'impulsive' (ie 5 smaller subwaves straight up) so I figured that we were looking at the Beginning Diagonal version (not the triangle wedge)---But this morning, when the OSX undercut 73.97 (Oct29 hi), the last upwave of the sequence then looked clearly like a 3 wave (and not a 5) --which made me immediately concerned that the other 2 upwaves before it were also 3 waves and one just couldn't see it right in daily charts)----So, this is what caused me to change back to Neutral from Bullish this morning. I am not prepared to go bearish unless we dip below 71.83print on Wed/Thurs and would instead gravitate yet again back towards a 'cautious' bullish stance if we instead exceed 75.88 on Wed/Thurs and close near the high for the day--As of the moment, I am simply sitting on the fence in here.----The Bearish case would be that the B Wave ended at yesterday's high at the end of the triangle wedge where the (e) wave didn't even have the power to get above the (c)---The Bullish case is that we take out 75.88 and keep going up in an impulsive fashion similar to unwinding a coiled spring. At the moment, I just don't 'know' which way it's going to shake out. It's a toss up as I see it so far....None of this means anything to FA types and non-elliott types. It only means something to me here (vvbg).-------Was constructive that RRC printed above 4.00 today--may have changed the trend from down to up. 4.00 should have stopped it if we were to continue down. We shall see.
