Earnings? real or imaginary? Have you looked at cash flow? How can JBOH make money when this is happening?: "Latest Lure on the Web: Free Trades
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            By PATRICK McGEEHAN
                 he price war among online brokerage firms has escalated so rapidly                that the stock trade has gone from being a commodity to a come-on.
            As commissions for executing stock trades sank lower and lower, Wall           Street experts said it was only a matter of time before somebody started           giving away trades. Well, that time has come: the American Express Co.           on Monday begun promoting an online brokerage service with           commission-free stock purchases for anybody who deposits $25,000. 
            That offer, which American Express officials say is not temporary, has           caused a lot of head-shaking in an industry that already abounds in           gimmickry. To entice investors, online brokers are tossing in everything           from trips to Hawaii to $100 bills. 
            "It's getting very messy," said Stephen D. McDonald, chief executive of           TD Waterhouse Group, an online brokerage firm that charges $12 for           some trades. "Next thing you know, we'll be giving away toasters." 
            There are no small appliances on the immediate horizon. But the firms           have started so many giveaways that even their executives have trouble           keeping track of what is being dangled before investors' eyes. 
            Last week, DLJdirect, the online brokerage arm of investment bank           Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette, was using ads on financial Web sites,           making two offers simultaneously to new account holders: investors who           knew where to look could choose to accept a credit of $100 or six months           of free Internet access, which would be paid in the form of a $120 credit. 
            ETrade Group went a little further this month when it started offering $150           to customers of a competitor, the Discover Brokerage Direct unit of           Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, for switching to ETrade. That was double           the offers of $75 that ETrade and Discover had made for opening           accounts. 
            Ameritrade, an Omaha-based firm that charges $8 for some trades, is           trumpeting an offer that may be worth more than those that ETrade and           DLJdirect have on the table. In exchange for opening a new account,           customers can get two round-trip plane tickets to London, Mexico or           Hawaii. The catch is that the tickets are free only after a customer pays           for a nondiscounted, seven-night stay at certain hotels. 
            "There's a lot of crazy things going on in terms of marketing and account           acquisition," said James Marks, an analyst at Credit Suisse First Boston.           Online brokerages are spending so much money on advertising and           promotion for very similar services, he said, that they find themselves "in a           position like American Express where you have to come up with almost a           gimmick that isn't sustainable." 
            Marks recently turned cautious on the stocks of some online brokers,           including Ameritrade and ETrade. Although he was an early proponent of           heavy marketing spending, he now fears that some online brokers are           spending far too much to acquire new accounts. 
            This summer's slowdown in online account activity, he said, raised doubts           about whether the online brokers could continue their growth pace. Shares           of some of them, which ran up sharply in the first half of the year, are now           about 50 percent off their highs. 
            "The accounts that these guys really want are the investors that will take           out margin loans," or borrow to buy stocks, Marks said. But advertising           low-margin interest rates does not attract customers the way free trades or           other promotions do, he said. 
            As cluttered as the landscape has become, American Express managed to           steal the spotlight, if only briefly, by creating a new business model for the           brokerage industry. While some of the biggest Wall Street firms are           struggling to shift from commission-based models to fee-based models,           American Express has decided to charge neither commissions nor fees. 
            "We thought that this is kind of an interesting way we can differentiate           ourselves," said Ruediger Adolf, a senior vice president at American           Express. While Adolf prefers not to describe the free stock trades as a           loss leader, American Express is giving away a service that costs it at least           several dollars to provide. 
            McDonald estimates that it costs the biggest and most efficient brokerage           firms at least $8 to carry out a stock trade ordered electronically. The cost           for firms that have to pay others to execute and process their trades could           run as high as $25, he said. 
            "We make money in other ways," Adolf said, referring to the interest that           American Express earns on the cash in customers' accounts and on loans           that customers take to buy stocks. "With traditional brokers, this would be           a very, very dangerous game because you fundamentally are cannibalizing           your main business." 
            In other words, American Express has nothing to lose by giving away           trades -- except money. Adolf declined to say how much American           Express expected to lose on the commission-free trades, but on the whole,           he said, "we think we absolutely can make money in this business." 
            The company is not making all stock trades free. Customers with at least           $100,000 in their accounts pay no commissions, but those with less than           $25,000 in their accounts pay $14.95 a trade. For the people in between,           American Express came up with an interesting twist: they can buy stocks           without paying a commission, but must pay $14.95 each time they sell           shares of a company. 
            That move, unusual for a brokerage, comes directly out of the mutual fund           playbook. Many fund companies let investors buy fund shares without a           sales charge, but charge one when the shares are sold. 
            A key component of the plan: Adolf said American Express did not want           to attract the type of investor for whom free trades would be most           appealing -- the hyperactive trader. What could sound better to somebody           who spends his days buying and selling stocks than an account that           charges no fee and no trading commissions? 
            Instead, American Express, like some other financial services firms           offering low-priced trades, preaches long-term investing. 
            "We do not subscribe to very aggressive trading strategies, particularly           day-trading," Adolf said. 
            To head off a rush of day traders, American Express has put in a speed           bump: Even those customers with $100,000 will have to pay $14.95 to sell           a stock the same day they bought it."  |