Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (23483)	11/2/1999 10:34:00 PM
From: esl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

I set a GTC order - buy 1000 CYMI at 37 9/16 at 11am this morning, 500 shares were executed at 2 pm this afternoon. I could not find it drop that low at that time on today's 1-min chart. Can anyone explain? Thanks!!

To: Ian@SI who wrote (23483)	11/3/1999 9:12:00 AM
From: Bookdon	Respond to of 25960

You are quite correct. This is just a very rough rule of thumb. The real problem is in defining sustainability. If Cymer really had increased earnings at 45% per year for the last five years, it not only would have a P/E of 45, but the earnings would (by definition) be MUCH higher. The current trend is to think of sustainable growth more in terms of the next 5 quarters (annualized), rather than the next 5 years. This means that the P/E can be anything from 20 to 80. Flip a coin.

To: Ian@SI who wrote (23483)	11/3/1999 9:28:00 AM
From: Bookdon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

To follow up on my "rule of thumb" comments: Earnings were $.275 in fiscal 1996: If we see 45% as the sustainable growth: 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Year .275 .398 .578 .838 1.22 $ earnings (.275 + 45%) 12.37 17.91 26.01 37.71 54.68 stock price (if 45P/E) Interestingly enough, that's not far from where the stock price is now (the 1999 $37.71 figure).

To: Ian@SI who wrote (23483)	11/3/1999 9:39:00 AM
From: Robert Douglas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

Ian, In addition to all the factors you mention, may I add one that I think will provide the gunpowder for the stock move; profit margins. I think there is a lot of room for Cymer's margins to move up during this semiconductor cycle. If you combine a nice expansion of margins with a good growth rate in the topline, you get the kind of earnings growth that makes Wall Street drool. It's this triple whammy of higher sales, higher margins and a higher P/E that multiply a stock's price. Why will Cymer's margins move up? Size, efficiency, market share, clout, shortages and the general profitability all along the semiconductor food chain will all help. This could be a very nice cycle to be in Cymer. All my opinion, of course. -Rob