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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kolo55 who wrote (15672)	11/3/1999 4:27:00 PM
From: kolo55	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 27311

Updated conversion information: The conversion price rose to 4.71 from 4.66 yesterday. The October 21 Closing bid of 4 1/2 became stale today, and will drop out before noon tomorrow. Therefore, the conversion price tomorrow will rise to 4.82, unless the closing bid drops to 5 3/16. This will cost Castle Creek about 24k shares, if they don't convert. Date: Closing Bid: Conversion Price: 21-Oct 4.5000 4.6607 22-Oct 5.1875 4.6607 25-Oct 4.8438 4.6607 26-Oct 4.7500 4.6607 27-Oct 4.4375 4.6186 28-Oct 4.5625 4.6081 29-Oct 4.8750 4.6186 1-Nov 5.3438 4.6292 2-Nov 5.3125 4.6555 3-Nov 6.0000 4.7081 Forecast for the next eight days, if the closing bid remains unchanged from today's close: Date: Closing Bid: Conversion Price: Shares Lost each day: 4-Nov 6.0000 4.8238 24,100 5-Nov 6.0000 4.8501 5,300 8-Nov 6.0000 4.9290 15,600 9-Nov 6.0000 5.1394 39,200 10-Nov 6.0000 5.4024 44,800 11-Nov 6.0000 5.6444 37,500 12-Nov 6.0000 5.8338 27,200 15-Nov 6.0000 5.9443 15,000 Total Shares lost = 208,712 These shares are worth more than $1.2 million at today's closing price. Paul

To: kolo55 who wrote (15672)	11/8/1999 9:33:00 PM
From: kolo55	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 27311

Why hasn't CC converted? I don't understand why they haven't converted at this point. They have already lost 60k shares by not converting early last week, and will lose another 50k shares in the next three days, if the closing bid remains flat with today's closing bid. Furthermore, we are seeing primarily a single seller again pounding the price down, this time through REDI, the market maker who hit the stock hard in early to mid August. I really don't understand their game, unless it is some sort of statistical play on a pool of floorless stocks. Even then, I am not sure I understand it. The average short price is around 5.00 (likely below), and the conversion price should climb above that level this week, unless they accelerate their selling. The selling coalition will be underwater soon on their short position, vis a vis the conversion price. Looks like I was wrong on CC converting within two weeks... If I had a rational explanation for this, I would state it, but I can't see a rational reason why they did not convert. CC seems to be satisfied with carrying a losing short position on VLNC for some period of time. Paul