To: Sam who wrote (131 ) 11/17/1999 10:40:00 AM From: Robert Douglas Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 488
Sam, Here is latest from BS: <<< Key Points Yesterday (11/16/99), Quantum DSS hosted its annual analyst meeting at Comdex. Here are our key points -- (1) the upcoming 3QOO (December) looks on track -- we are forecasting EPS of $0.34 vs. $0.35 and revenues of $362 million, (2) SuperDLT remains on track for volume shipments beginning next year -- our sense is that it is in qualification at many major OEMs -- in fact Compaq has qualified SuperDLT. It appears to us that LTO (tape drive jointly built by IBM, H-P, and Seagate) specs -- 100 GB native capacity and 15 MB/second transfer rate -- are pretty much on par with SuperDLT's specs. While DSS has a large installed base, we are a little concerned that LTO could have an impact on DSS's future revenue and earnings growth -- it is difficult to quantify the impact (if any) at this point. No change in our FYOO estimate of $1.35 and FY01 estimate of $1.55. However, as we have said before, we are a little more anxious given that the company's record of missing quarters and these estimates could be susceptible to future revisions. Despite the inconsistency in DSS's financial performance, we are maintaining our Attractive rating on DSS owing to our belief that the company is well-positioned with (1) the growth of the data from Internet activities such as e-commerce, e-mail, and richer multimedia that needs to be backed-up and protected, (2) DSS's leading market position with its DLT products with over 80% midrange server market share, (3) our anticipation of a strong product upgrade cycle with SuperDLT next year. Our price target on DSS remains at $23-$25. We reach our $23-$25 target by assigning a multiple of 15x-16x against our fiscal 2001 (ending March) estimate of $1.55. Although this multiple may be at a discount to that of its peers, we are taking a conservative stance given the company's recent earnings shortfalls and the performance issues associated with tracking stocks.>>>