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Technology Stocks : eToys Inc. (ETYS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (775)	11/4/1999 6:08:00 AM
From: Harley Davidson	Respond to of 1330

The only forecast I have read is that E-commerce Christmas toy sales are expected to be 250 million and eToys is expected to get 46% of that (focus groups). That is 115 million. But if I take the fact that toy companies do 2/3 of their business during Christmas and I look at eToys sales for the three quarters leading up to Christmas, I don't see it. The prior three quarters are 5 million (estimate), 8 million and 13 million. Thats 26 million. If I take the last quarter sales and multiply by 3 I get 39 million. If they are to get 115 ,million in Christmas sales and that represents 2/3 of the annual business (of a "normal" year)the other third must be 57.5 million. They are at 26. Even taking the last quarter times three puts me at 39 and that includes The Baby Center revenue probabbly not subject to the same extreme seaonality as toys. I don't see a rate of growth in the last few quarters that would trend to 115 million factoring in the seasonality, advertising notwithstanding. BuddyR (WSS)