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To: Eric Wells who wrote (83037)11/3/1999 7:07:00 PM
From: Sam Sara  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 164684
 
Eric:

I read a piece by James Cramer about shorting, unfortunately AFTER I lost a significant amount of money shorting earlier this year. I learned from that experience, believe me...

An important paragraph from that article:

Never short because of valuation. I don't care what Microsoft sells for, it doesn't matter what the P/E of Ascend is, it is irrelevant that Vertex has no earnings. Never, ever try to call an irrational top based solely on multiples of sales or earnings. There will always be some mutual fund out there that will keep the ball in the air and crush you. Steinhardt taught this to me and my wife, though ironically he never listened to it and he lost a ton of money shorting good companies because he ignored his own teaching. Take Cisco: seemed expensive for years, but as it kept beating numbers it looked cheaper and cheaper on past earnings. Turned out to be a bargain in 1992.