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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: limtex who wrote (7948)	11/3/1999 7:18:00 PM
From: John Stichnoth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 60323

Some on this thread in the last couple of days have doubted the size of the potential market for CF for pda's and cellphones. Just thinking aloud, but I see the markets as-- --Cameras (of course); flash-based cameras will replace virtually all cameras in the $100 to $600 price range. Anyone know what the selling rate of these is? Also, figure 2-3 CF's (or Memory Sticks?) per year for any digital camera in use. --Cell Phones; The market will split into two parts. One will continue to drive to very small devices that will handle voice only, that the user can carry around in a small pocket unnoticed. The second part will be internet/data capable. All of these will need flash. Figure 2-3 CF per this second type of cellphone. --PDA's; The distinction between PDA's and the second type of cellphone (above) will disappear. PDA's of course will all have removeable flash. PDA growth rate will continue at its present pace, perhaps increasing if wireless internet becomes competitive in price and speed with wireline internet. Figure a couple CF's per PDA in use, per year. --Laptops; With the growth in PDA's, and the presence of Type II and Type III slots increasingly standard in laptops (I haven't seen one without it recently), CF will be the method of choice for transferring data between PDA's and Laptops. CF/Type III adapters will become standard equipment. Figure a couple of CF's per laptop, in addition to Type II flash memory cards. --Desktops; The surprise winner in replacing the 1.44 mb floppy disk becomes flash. Since everyone will have CF anyway, for their Cameras or Cell Phones or PDA's or laptops, it will be easy for them to get the peripheral, or buy it installed in the first place, on their desktops. They'll have several CF cards ready at any time, of different sizes, ready for backing up information, taking it home with the laptop, or giving a copy to someone else. Figure another half-dozen CF's per household that has both a desktop and a PDA or second-type cellphone. I'm sure I've missed some valuable uses. This was just off the top of my head. Any thoughts? Best, JS

To: limtex who wrote (7948)	11/3/1999 8:31:00 PM
From: Sam	Respond to of 60323

Limtex, EH has already so noted, and has said ever since MMC was announced several years ago that he believed that the cell phone market would be the biggest user of flash. With Siemens, Ericson, Nokia and Motorola all using MMC, this market will be exploding over the next couple of years. Presuming that higher rates and tighter money doesn't pop the general market, if we don't get to new highs by the end of CY99, we'll get there after the next earnings report, I am getting more and more confident of that. I'm sorry I didn't buy even more earlier in the week. Someone is going out of their way to make sure that Sandisk gets a good price for their offering. Seagate pulling their trust may have something to do with it. feeling pretty bullish in the middle of another pretty amazing week, s.