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Technology Stocks : eBay - Superb Internet Business Model -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: fedhead who wrote (6075)	11/3/1999 7:15:00 PM
From: KeepItSimple	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 7772

>Where do you think their auction counts need to be before their next >earnings report date for Wall Street to take notice again ? forget auction counts. it is as bogus a number as "hits" were back in the beginning of the internut mania. the only thing that matters is how much money per customer flea bay is making. (or losing, if you subtract interest income from their cooked books) Yahoo now has 30% as many auctions as Ebay, starting from ZERO just a year ago. Scamazon is nipping at Ebay's heels too. Ebay currently has a PE ration of 14,000:1. They are the reigning champion of overvaluation. And not surprisingly, the list of insiders lining up to dump shares RIGHT NOW is as long as my arm. Even the original VCs are dumping the vast majority of their positions. Did you see the SEC filing last friday? In short, Ebay is done. Stick a fork in it. Short to zero, and never cover.

To: fedhead who wrote (6075)	11/4/1999 12:50:00 AM
From: Doug Fowler	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7772

To initiate a position in eBay again: 1. eBay needs to fix its technical problems. While a backup is on the way, there have been 3 awful periods for eBay in the last 4 days, where the site has been effectively inaccessible. These are design flaws, and the backup would not have prevented these. The site needs to handle heavy traffic much more effectively than in now does, and that will probably require a complete architecture overhaul, which could take months or even years. 2. eBay needs to work to make the auctions more successful for sellers. Average auction prices have fallen dramatically over the past few quarters, and this means sellers are experiencing less success with their auctions. Too much supply, not enough demand. So, eBay needs to get very aggressive with bringing the buyers in. Yet, eBay derives two-thirds of its revenues through listing fees, so it doesn't have enough incentive to make sure the auctions are successful. Ultimately, this will come to slap eBay in the face if they don't bring in high volumes of quality buyers. 3. eBay stock is just too expensive right now, even by Internet measures.