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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KeepItSimple who wrote (32183)	11/3/1999 9:06:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 99985

KIS wrong they already have it all forgoten. Masters in speculation. Haim

To: KeepItSimple who wrote (32183)	11/3/1999 9:52:00 PM
From: j.o.	Respond to of 99985

The Market Doctor's read on things... Markets @ a Glance November 3, 1999 A bit of a downer for the Equity sector yesterday as it appeared that the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ were all prepared to let the Bulls run early on, however by day's end, the Blue Chips and the Broad market were back in the red and the NASDAQ was beaten down to below the 3,000 mark. That's OK everybody, today's another day. Early comments by Greenspan, who referenced the affects of real estate on consumer wealth and spending, rather than the value of stocks, seemed to have provided some upside momentum for the Equity Indexes and possibly even knocked a couple of basis points off the Long Bond. Near term market focus will probably concentrate on upcoming Global Monetary Policy as the Central Bank of Australia just hiked rates late yesterday by 25 basis points. The European Central Bank and UK monetary policy meetings are set for Nov 4th and there is definitely the potential for interest rate hikes from each zone. The Doc is thinking 25 basis points for each region. Consensus seems to have grown for a potential 50 bpt hike for the ECB, however I would find this a bit aggressive given the state of their economy at this point. For an in-depth analysis of this topic, look at this week's Economic Roundup. I don't see major impacts from Australian interest rate policy for the US markets. Stocks Well, the Dow is returning to it's old soggy self as it settled below the 10,600 area and the S&P followed suit. Not even a positive Bond market could help maintain the early gains the indexes achieved yesterday. I don't see any "big time" technical levels, however if the Dow can somehow take out 10,800 on a close, the technical picture will look positive. The NASDAQ tried to blow out that 3,000 level. There's no doubt that this price zone is a psychological barrier and may provide a little trouble for the near term. Investors may also be thinking that at above the 3,000 mark the index will be approaching an increase of 40% on the year. Remember how painful it was for the DJIA to breach 10,000. After trying about a half a dozen times on an intra-day basis it actually sold off to about 9,500 before finally rallying hard to breach the psychological level. I'm not saying that this is the case for the NASDAQ, because a mere 20 points will get the job done, however keep in mind it may not be that easy. Bonds Bonds played around in a range building manner yesterday as the near term yield support of 6.12% mentioned in yesterday's markets at a glance provided a cap for prices. Perhaps Greenspan's comments on housing affects on consumer wealth provided a boost to prices, as he did make mention in his previous speech the higher rates may have already taken their toll on housing activity. Recent economic releases also point to this. On an outside note: Government debt management changes (e.g. size, frequency and maturity of auctions), which could be announced today, may have provided some shifts in Bond yields. However, in general, the Bond market was pretty quiet yesterday. Near term yield support at 6.12% and then 6.0%. Market drivers may entail European monetary policy and pre-US Employment position adjustments. A little wordy today...too much coffee !!!! Stephan Kudyba (MBA/PhD).... THE MARKET DOCTOR indextrade.com