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To: Ken98 who wrote (73523)	11/3/1999 7:13:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 86076

Ken, a mixture of speculation and complacency in keeping with the market's strength. there's scarcely any buying of index puts, indicating that no-one seems to see the need to hedge or speculate on a downturn. total call open interest is close to recent record highs, so there sure is a lot of upside speculation in the market. however, the options data were even more extreme at the July peak. from my experience the current data do not necessarily support an immediate downturn, but they are getting awfully close. other sentiment measures such as the Rydex ratio also show complacency back to where it was for most of this year. some people argue that bearishness according to the polls is still high, but that's not true for all polls and also hardly supported by people's positioning, which suggests bullishness is fairly high...not an all-time high (that coincided with the SPX peak in July), but high enough to get me to scale out of long positions for now... note it wouldn't be the first time that seemingly bearish sentiment data were simply overruled by market momentum this year.