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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Fulop who wrote (7720)	11/3/1999 11:57:00 PM
From: Steven Ivanyi	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12623

The reasons that I feel that CIEN will fade are as follows: -the stock has a good history of a quick run-up and then falling -this price jump was very large including a large gap up. Again, if one reviews the charts on CIEN these are followed by fades and the gap will most likely be closed completely - the news is relatively minor in relation to the price move - the stock is 200+ EPS - major resistance at 42 1/2 - stochRSI despite the move remained level, suggesting that a topping pattern is here - Stochastics look strong but there appears to be a divergence between stochastic now and previous peak - MACD is in bullish ( the only thing I'm a little nervous about), however the stock does fluctuate enough that the MACD can be bullish but the stock is actually retracing. - the Nasdaq has been performing well lately, causing a lot of stock to go up. However, The Nasdaq composite is overbought and due for some correction. This I think is inevitable with the next interest rate increase on the 16th. I think there will be lots of nervousness in the market for the next while causing a lot of investors with profits to sell. - I have been very succeessful in the past shorting this stock on large run-ups. For example shorted at 42 covered at 35, shorted again at 37 1/2 and covered between 30 1/16 and 30 1/4. I also bought and sold at 34. - today's jump I think is an abberation because you have this one large spike up. This I have found in most cases to be followed by a downslide in price and the gap closed. I see CIEN trading at 34-35 by early next week. It's a fine company but has extremely choppy trading activity. If it breaks 42 1/2 I will cut my loss there. Hope this helps