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To: Rocket Scientist who wrote (8173)	11/3/1999 10:48:00 PM
From: djane	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29987

Russia and China: Technology Meets the Politics of Space STRATFOR.COM Global Intelligence Update November 4, 1999 Summary: The explosion of a second Russian rocket in Kazakstan, while only a short-term obstacle to Russian space projects, may have important side effects. It creates an opportunity for Russia to turn to China for increased cooperation in space, with important technological ramifications. Strategically, this affords Russia the opportunity to strengthen a budding alliance with China - while simultaneously keeping a foothold in Kazakstan. Analysis: Russia announced Nov. 3 that it would not demand Kazakstan lift the ban imposed on launches at the Baikonur launch pad, after the recent explosion of a Russian rocket there. Russia's decision could be an indication that it will seek support for its space program elsewhere. The loss of the rocket is yet another phase in the continuing decay of Moscow's space program. Beyond the business of satellite launches, this incident will help warm broader technological and political ties between Russia and China. Russia is likely to use the accident to accelerate bilateral space agreements with China. The Oct. 27 explosion at Baikonur was the second in less than four months. Both were caused by a Russian Proton rocket malfunction shortly after take-off. In the most recent accident, a Russian communications satellite was atop the booster; the booster's explosion scattered fragments across the unpopulated region of northeast Kazakstan. Local worries have arisen over the potential spill of toxic chemicals before these crashes, triggering concerns over health and the environment. The government of Kazakstan has responded forcefully - and threatened the Russian satellite launch program. In both instances, local authorities banned any further launches until investigations are completed. After the first crash, the ban lasted two months and Russia was forced to pay over $400,000 in compensation, including the cost of health testing for residents. Kazakstan will ask for at least as much this time, but Russia has much lower estimates for appropriate compensation. After initially refusing financial responsibility, Russian officials decided Nov. 3 that damages were approximately $28,000. It is not clear when Russia will be able to use this facility again; Russia has not yet announced how it will accommodate Baikonur launches scheduled for November and December. The temporary loss of the launch is likely to motivate Russia to speed into a new space partnership with China. In September, Russia and China signed a space cooperation protocol in the areas of applied space research, long-term programs for piloted research, fundamental research and elements connected with the creation of spacecraft, according to the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Ilya Klebanov has also hinted that Russia and China could engage in a joint space station project. This was followed by an Oct. 18 announcement that Russia would help China carry out its first manned space flight, scheduled for early 2000. On Oct. 27, the two countries struck a deal on specific plans for scientific cooperation. Long-term cooperation between Russia and China could lead to an important shift in technology between the two nations. Russia's space program has been experiencing a steady decline in funds and advancement - while a better-funded Chinese effort ranks as a top national priority. Russia has 30 years worth of knowledge to share with China, which has the resources at its disposal. Each also possesses differing technologies and expertise that can be shared for mutual advantage. This is likely to become a concern to the West. Specifically, Russia is involved in the International Space Station (ISS) project with the United States and other nations. The United States, in particular, will likely be wary of cooperation with the Russians for fear they will share technology with China. If this leads to an actual dispute, Russia may even break off from the ISS and pursue its project with China. Alternately, China may have the resources to revive the Mir station before it's too late. Russia and China also share an overriding interest in Central Asia, particularly Kazakstan. Both countries realize the economic and strategic value of maintaining influence over their mutual neighbor. Central Asia is rife with Islamic terrorism and its internal conflicts threaten to brim over into both Russia and China. Also, Kazakstan contains energy resources, and the pipelines to transport them, needed by both its large neighbors. This situation creates both a need and an opportunity for cooperation between Russia and China. Both nations continue to seek comfort in cooperation, binding their two weaker powers in an attempt to balance out the stronger United States. Increasingly linked space programs will yield benefits at little or no cost to either nation. In light of the recent impediment caused by the accidents at Baikonur, the timing is perfect for Russia and China to accelerate their joint efforts in space. (c) 1999, Stratfor, Inc. __________________________________________________ SUBSCRIBE to FREE, DAILY GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE UPDATES (GIU) stratfor.com or send your name, organization, position, mailing address, phone number, and e-mail address to alert@stratfor.com UNSUBSCRIBE FROM THE GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE UPDATES (GIU) stratfor.com ___________________________________________________ STRATFOR.COM 504 Lavaca, Suite 1100 Austin, TX 78701 Phone: 512-583-5000 Fax: 512-583-5025 Internet: stratfor.com Email: info@stratfor.com

To: Rocket Scientist who wrote (8173)	11/4/1999 4:17:00 AM
From: Veiko Herne	Respond to of 29987

RE: Does Elsacom really have all the license and local SP arrangements needed in E. Europe? I think, it's not needed, even there are some legal aspects. In Estonia You must apply the license, if You want to build a telecommunication network. SAT phones uses the existing network in sky and don't need to build anything. There is no law restricting to sell the phones in market. The more interesting issue is providing long-distance calls. Using a SAT phones, You never know, wheather the person is inside or outside of small country. Using a same logic, every GSM usage done in offshore water or TAX free area in Airport is long-distance call. I think, it's same in lot of Eastern Europe country. Eastern europe problem is, that after the market economy, we wanted investments to telecommunication infrastructure. Investors again wanted a protection for investments, so those stupid laws was made. If I would be a SAT phone provider, I would just make the agreement with some local phone distributor to sell those phones in electronic shops and will not to start to apply a goverment license. The internet long-distance calls and call-back services work same way here. One finnish company started to apply the license for Internet phonecalls and of course our government rejected it. Veiko