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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rich1 who wrote (1684)	11/3/1999 10:41:00 PM
From: Guy Gordon	Respond to of 24042

The trend channel I drew shows what JDSU has done for the last year. As for predicting the future, all it says is that JDSU is likely to stay within the same channel. To do so, the price will have to come down or go sideways. That's why I suggest selling covered calls, buying puts, or not buying JDSU at this price. Given the strong action of JDSU at the end of trading today it wouldn't surprise me if it broke out through the top of my channel. But I won't bet that way. Let me emphasize that the top of the channel I drew is not a sharp line etched in stone. Resistance lines are fuzzy, even if my computer insists on drawing it sharp. Also, I've only got one data point telling me where to draw that top line. That's really not enough. All it says is "this is as far as JDSU has ever gotten above the support line. It most certainly does not say that JDSU can't go higher. It just says "this is pretty high -- be cautions." Now, I've got a lot of money riding on JDSU, so I've got to be very cautions. That's why I bought the puts. Holding the stock at this point exposes me to the risk of losing maybe 20-30/share. But selling exposes me to a huge tax, and deprives me of reinvesting that money. So buying the puts was just a way of reducing my risk. I'll still participate if the stock goes up. "where do you think JDSU is going?" Down short term. Up long term. "Does your chart work for SPU's?" Don't know. Specific case? "Can you switch and reverse if the trend goes the other way?" I suppose you could, but I don't. I choose stocks that have both long-term and intermediate term up trends. If the intermediate term trend turns down I'll get out of the stock, but I won't bet against the long-term trend. I use MetaStock 6.5 for charting and Reuters Datalink for historical data. I use Personal Stock Monitor to collect delayed intraday quotes and export them to Metastock.