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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Clarke who wrote (8882)	11/4/1999 1:24:00 PM
From: jeffbas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78627

Jim, October same store sales were pretty mediocre for EBSC. Does that change your view at all of the stock, if the company being under obvious pressure to deliver something is going nowhere? Since it is #1 on your net-net hit parade and the price is heading back toward $6, I thought I'd ask. If you assume that same store sales will be basically flat indefinitely, my conservative scenario, what is the stock worth in your opinion?

To: James Clarke who wrote (8882)	11/4/1999 1:26:00 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78627

Some stuff about GPC: bigcharts.com I've never liked GPC. Don't know why, but I consider GPC a bugaboo stock for growth investors just as I do Genessee Beer for value investors. These seem to be stocks everyone eventually stumbles across, everyone says looks like perfect stocks for their category, but nobody ever reports that they've made any money in them. (That's how it seems anyway- of course I realize plenty of people may be doing just dandy with these investments- but they're companies that have always looked attractive and for me, never seem to have delivered.) Charles Allmon recommended GPC in his "Growth Stock Outlook" for years in the late '60's, '70's and '80's, maybe even yet today. And the chart I've linked to which shows how one share becomes more than 200 is terrific. That's what was. But it's now now. genpt.com As I see it, GPC is not an industrial company. So the models we've just been talking about probably won't work. The company is more a distributor. And by the way I look at it, its fair value is closer to 13 than its current $26 price. But that can't be either, because the dividend -- now yielding about 4%-- would then be about 8%. (GPC would be way too cheap at $13) Very important for me, I cannot comprehend how, if GPC is a distributor, genpt.com they deliver the results they do (and pay the dividend they do). I see their NAPA auto stores -- very dinky and dull compared to PBY. And PBY (Pep Boys)itself is having much difficulty increasing overall sales - they are closing stores, their stock is at stated book value. (aside to I2: PBY might be a buy now. -g-) How can this very competitive business be so profitable for GPC? GPC is in office products and furniture distribution (SP Richards)? Man, with Staples, Office Max, Office Depot blanketing the country, not only do I wonder how GPC can compete, but how can they possibly be reporting the results they do report? Totally incomprehensible to me. And I'm not too thrilled that they've increased ltd from almost nothing in '95 to $.7 Billion now. Yet ROE seems to have stalled or decreased (19 to 17%?) But there is still hope -g-. It's possible for me to take a "sausage" approach. (I eat the things, just don't like thinking about how they are made). genpt.com If one relies on history (and I often do), then with 43 years of dividend increases, and selling for a pe of 13 and a 4% dividend yield, this stock is a buy now for long term, patient money. You are getting a stock selling for a decent ROE, relatively low p/sales, and an excellent business history. This is a stock to put in Mom's account(maybe). GPC? I don't like thinking about it. Not one bit.