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Technology Stocks : George Gilder - Forbes ASAP -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (2258)	11/4/1999 8:29:00 AM
From: Ron M	Respond to of 5853

Gilder comments at the Red Herring NDA 99 Tech Conference TV ads may be doomed, expert says By Thomas Kupper UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER November 3, 1999 CARLSBAD -- Would you watch TV commercials if you didn't have to? George Gilder wouldn't, and the outspoken economist thinks that basic choice could spell doom for television as we know it. Gilder said yesterday at the NDA '99 technology conference -- sponsored by Red Herring magazine -- that improved computer-like devices and high-speed Internet access will allow consumers to watch what they want, when they want it -- with commercials or without. That change, which he said could happen quickly, would make the advertising that pays for today's television obsolete. "This is a technology for wasting the customer's time," Gilder said of today's TV. "It only works as long as the customer is not sovereign." Already, new devices offered by Replay Networks and TiVo allow viewers to save programs on a disk for viewing at whatever time the consumer chooses. As a bonus, you can skip the commercials at the press of a button. While those devices are too expensive at this point to be of interest to the masses, Gilder said, they have already caused some anxiety at the headquarters of the television networks. And Gilder said the problem the networks face could only get worse in coming years as Internet speeds improve to the point that viewers can download programming at any time, also potentially without commercials. Kim LeMasters, a former head of CBS Entertainment who recently became chief executive of Replay Networks, said the company is not out to kill the networks, because its business relies on the programming they provide. Without commercials, there would be no money to pay for the development of new programming, which could mean the supply of new shows could end unless another means were found to fund them. "We're going to end up in an environment where the only thing out there that's of value to anyone is libraries," LeMasters said. "We're going to be sitting around watching 'Gilligan's Island.' " It will be at least a few years before new technology reaches enough homes to force programmers to solve this problem. Gilder suggested that the result will be an increase in pay-per-view programming. Thomas McGrath, executive vice president of Viacom's entertainment group, said that whichever model emerges, producers of programming are likely to support the emergence of new distribution methods. Just as cable created more channels on which a movie could be shown, Internet distribution increases the producers' options. And it makes it possible to make movies available that might not have a large-enough potential audience to justify broadcast. "From our perspective, the movie is made. It's in the vault," McGrath said. "It's in our interest to make it available to the person who wants to watch it." McGrath also pointed out that pundits have predicted that new technology would kill the television commercial before, when TV makers introduced the remote control. But it turned out that most viewers usually sit through the ads instead of changing the channel. "Virtually no one ever zaps the commercials," McGrath said. "It's a tempting feature, but it's a pain in the neck."

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (2258)	11/4/1999 8:44:00 AM
From: Peter Ecclesine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5853

Hi Ray, Ethernet is specified in IEEE 802.3 and covers MAC and PHYs, not the upper layers. There is no other 'owner' of the word 'Ethernet'. petere

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (2258)	11/4/1999 8:57:00 AM
From: Kenneth E. De Paul	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5853

The same, however, I was looking into the business model. they provide those protocols over an inside wiring. My comment was directed at their business model. Inside wiring seems to be very easy to replace compared with outside ground digging etc. My question is oriented toward the cost of their product inside the hotel v. the cost of complete facility replacement. I view the telco as having a much larger cost to rewire all of us with fiber v. each individual residence or hotel. Thus the cost of the DSL electronics in the loop could pay for themselves easier. Your thoughts.