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Strategies & Market Trends : Cents and Sensibility - Kimberly and Friends' Consortium -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Steve Smith who wrote (23131)11/4/1999 10:03:00 AM
From: Gary Payton  Respond to of 108040
 
SDLI another sympathy. PMIX going now. volume is coming in, if it breaks high of 7, look out above.



To: Steve Smith who wrote (23131)11/4/1999 10:11:00 AM
From: Kimberly Lee  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 108040
 
One notable stock of the day: Alanco (ALAN:NASD)
Total Outstanding shares: 5.34M, Float: 4.5M

Main Catalysts for coverage: Alanco, formerly a company specialized in pollution control products, agreed to acquired Arraid Inc., a private company providing data storage solutions for mid-range and mainframe systems, on Oct 27, 1999. The main catch here is that Arraid has been developing products in SAN for quite some time and is prepared to launch the SAN product lines on November 11, one week from now.

Business and Technology: Until next Thursday, Arraid is manufacturer and distributor of disk arrays. Formed in 1993. But the launch of the SAN product lines on Nov 11 will mark a pivotal shift of corporate strategic focus. Since Arraid has already established alliances with many leading SAN companies (Gadzoox, Crossroads, Exabyte, Legato, Hitachi and others), I would expect the new product lines robust and comprehensive. According to Hoovers, Arraid's current annual revenues are between 2 to 5 millions; Arraid's CEO Frank B. Meijers has stated in recent announcements that he expects the projected revenues in the next year to reach 10M, representing anywhere between a 100% to 400% revenue growth rate (I will call Arraid today to gather the actual revenues for this year since the 2 - 5 millions listed in Hoover is such a wide range)
hoovers.com

Client list: Arraid has a very impressive client list, especially for an obscure, privately held company:
from top government agencies NASA, NATO to major corporations such as MCI/Worldcom.
arraidsns.com

Alliances: As mentioned above, Arraid has existing alliances with several key SAN companies, including Gadzoox, Crossroads, Exabyte, Legato, Hitachi, Qlogic and others.
arraidsns.com

Risk Factors: The several press releases form ALAN and Arraid did not go into any specific technical details of the SAN initiative. Moreover, according to the press release, Alanco acquired Arraid in an all-stock transaction consisting of an initial payment of 800,000 Alanco common shares, with an additional
share payment upon Arraid achieving its business plan objectives for the year period beginning Nov. 1, 1999. Almost sounds too good to be true. But then, from another angle, Arraid could have been perfectly confident that the stock price of the new company will soar many folds in the coming weeks. As well, once they demonstrate a sound business plan with viable revenues and earnings growth, the company can always spin off Arraid as an IPO in the future to receive new cash infusion.
ALAN has run up considerably since the original acquisition announcement on Oct 27, but I believe we have a long way to go yet, given the strong market conditions, the heightened potential of the new company the vast anticipation until Nov 11, and the very small market cap at the moment (factoring in the 800000 shares in acquisition, ALAN has only 6.14M in total outstanding shares).

Analysis and expectations: Arraid management has demonstrated the proven ability to attract and retain as clients many of the most prominent companies and government agencies in the world. The company's alliances with the leading SAN companies appear to clearly set the stage for a successful launch of the SAN initiatives. At the close of Nov 3, the stock was trading just a little below 3, a great bargain for the discerning speculators. An especially attractive point is that Arraid pre-releases the Nov 11 PR launch of the SAN initiatives on its website, but will not release that PR for general distribution (BW, ComDex, etc.) until one week from now.
arraidsns.com




To: Steve Smith who wrote (23131)11/29/1999 7:19:00 AM
From: Kimberly Lee  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 108040
 
Good morning, Steve and everyone. Great call on ORTL and many others. Meant to reply to your post much earlier but couldn't find it until now :)