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To: bill meehan who wrote (73665)	11/4/1999 1:51:00 PM
From: accountclosed	Respond to of 86076

thanks.

To: bill meehan who wrote (73665)	11/4/1999 2:44:00 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

Bill, I think the number tomorrow will be ugly. I am just about in complete alignment with the thoughts below from Briefing.com ( for better or worse) -g- GMT regarding the pivotal nature of this Friday's employment report and the risk of a market negative number. We would note that the 12-month average to July this year stood at 250k/month. If the three month average since then is to correct back towards 250K then a whopping 655k increase would be needed in October. Even if you take the 6-month average to July payrolls rose by 240k/month which means the October report would still need to come in above 600k. The point is, although briefing.com is going for an above consensus 320k rise this October, the underlying risk is that it could well be a lot higher and that will undoubtedly spook the current constructive rate sentiment - not least because it risks coming on the back of BOE and ECB rate hikes. Given the highly unpredictable nature of payrolls there is a not insignificant risk that the potential catch up will be delayed until November which could be even more catastrophic given deteriorating liquidity and hence magnified volatility going into the new year. Technical focus : Dec T-bonds are trading midway within a neutral 112-29 - 113-25 3-day range and now stand at 113-12. As with the European bond markets, this delivery is also heavily overbought but as yet shows little inclination to correct lower. The topside could yet be tested (whilst that range low holds) and gains to 114-02 would then be signalled. In the unlikely event that broke 114-17 would be signalled. The indicators : The 14 day RSI now stands at similar levels to those seen on Sept 24th and August 26 and July 20th where, on average, losses of about four big figures were seen in the following three to four weeks. The slow moving MACD is in buy mode but at highly divergent levels to the signal line and it's still in negative territory. Whilst below the zero line, this tells us the trend is still basically negative and that the market is now overbought. The delivery is just above its 55 day moving average. On the last four occasions it traded above this long term moving average is held for an average of 4.5 days before plummeting. Today is the fourth day it has held above this average. In sum the odds are heavily stacked for a meaningful correction lower signalled by a break of 112-29 opening the way to 112-14, 112-00 then the 111-20 area.