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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: f.simons who wrote (78622)	11/4/1999 10:14:00 PM
From: tejek	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1570818

RE <<<Paul- I pointed these numbers out to Mr. Spurway two days ago and got a lecture about how Intel holders are obsessed with stock price while the more high minded AMD holders are more interested in the quality of product. Of course, when AMD has a good day, everyone here wants to talk about price, just like normal people.>> I thought I was the one who made the comment re obsessed intc stock holders....you can't keep your stories straight. Now I know its too many drugs.

To: f.simons who wrote (78622)	11/4/1999 10:37:00 PM
From: Paul Engel	Respond to of 1570818

f - Re: "I pointed these numbers out to Mr. Spurway two days ago and got a lecture about how Intel holders are obsessed with stock price while the more high minded AMD holders are more interested in the quality of product. Of course, when AMD has a good day, everyone here wants to talk about price, just like normal people." Spurway loves spurious arguments. Tejerk loves falling knives - AMD falling knives ! Paul

To: f.simons who wrote (78622)	11/5/1999 9:03:00 AM
From: Kevin K. Spurway	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 1570818

Re: "I pointed these numbers out to Mr. Spurway two days ago and got a lecture about how Intel holders are obsessed with stock price while the more high minded AMD holders are more interested in the quality of product." Did you? Not from me. That being said, I wouldn't underestimate the power of having good products. Here's the competitive situation between AMD and Intel right now: AMD has a newer, better (faster) core. The expectation is that this core, from a design perspective, will be more scalable than Intel's old P6 core. Everyone thinks Intel has better process technology. That's probably true. However, the evidence in the market right now is that Intel is manufacturing chips on .18u and is not yielding huge volumes over 600 MHz (note lack of availability on Pricewatch). AMD is yielding 700 MHz parts on a hybrid .25u process. You can expect them to get at least some kick moving to .18 later this year. AMD may even get more of kick if it gets Dresden and copper online properly next year. This is somewhat of a crapshoot, though, and it will make or break the company, so if you're going to own AMD you'd better get comfortable taking the Dresden execution risk. Intel has the customers, although AMD has made a lot of inroads even with the inferior K6 line. Intel certainly has the marketing advantage. No argument there. Intel has better, more professional management. Intel has far superior resources, but seems to have had troubles deploying them recently. These recent Intel delays and product problems are highly unusual in my experience, and I've been watching this market since I first bought some AMD back in 1996. So I'm taking them as some sort of indication that Intel has either lost focus or is pushing too hard. Finally, AMD is on Microsoft's good side, and Intel isn't. Stocks rise and fall based on investor expectations of future results. For various reasons, Intel has decided that the primary driver of it's future growth is not going to be x86. That's why they're out burning money acquiring crapy overvalued companies left and right. Personally, I'm not convinced that Intel has the right strategy. I think Intel needs to continue to focus on ICs, and stay away from low margin, high hype distractions like the ASP business. AMD is not in the process of diversifying the way Intel is. If anything, they have been forced by the market to increase their focus on one business, x86. I think in the long run that's a positive. Couple this to the fact that the market is currently valuing Intel for success and valuing AMD for failure, and I think AMD represents a good investment opportunity right now--probably a better one than it has in a long time. Let me ask you a question. If AMD achieves less than it's goal and takes 20% of the x86 market, evenly distributed from low to high end, and does it with half the margins currently enjoyed by Intel, where do you think AMD will trade? So, on quality of product, you can bet Intel longs would be talking about it if in fact Intel had the superior product. Intel used to--right now it doesn't. As far as the stock price goes, who cares what it does day to day unless you're a day trader? If all you discuss on these boards is stock price and daily moves, then your not an investor--you're an idiot. Kevin