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Strategies & Market Trends : LastShadow's Position Trading -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Redhook who wrote (24297)	11/4/1999 5:58:00 PM
From: AlienTech	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 43080

Steve Harmons Softbank analysis Ichi Internet: Softbank Value? Whole Worth More Than Parts Ichi ban.com, welcome to Softbank, the global Internet company whose portfolio includes Yahoo, ETrade and dozens more from Silicon Valley to Tokyo. The big question raging all year has been what's Softbank really worth? I can get to about $55 billion in my estimated intrinsic value for Softbank's entire operation and portfolio, a premium to its market cap today on the Tokyo exchange (9984). While difficult to trade and track because of its relatively-high price per share and non-U.S. base, I believe despite its recent runup and downturn Softbank still represents one of the better ways to play the Internet globally. The downturn came as a result of a critical book about Softbank published in Japan. Much ado has been made about Softbank in various circles the past 12 months. I recall 3 years ago conventional wisdom said the Japanese-based technology and investor firm was going to implode on sheer range of its Internet investments. Its investment of $105 million for one-third of Yahoo at the Web network's IPO was seen as laughable. At the time I noted Softbank's moves and thought either Softbank would win really big or lose really big. The investment in Yahoo was a good sign since I was a believer in its model and prospects. In fact I told an entrepreneur in 1997 if Softbank didn't invest in them then something was definitely wrong since it was putting cash on everything that moved in the Net space. Still is, sort of. There was no in between for this sort of shotgun investing. Put bets on all tables. In the ensuing period Softbank (and its related affiliates or subsidiaries) has made more than 75 Internet investments in the U.S. and Asia in firms including ETRADE, Ziff-Davis (ZDNet), Yahoo Japan, ETrade Japan, and just about everything else .com Japan for its U.S. counterpart. Here's a snapshot of some of the better-known investments: Company Ticker Percent owned Value Etrade EGRP 27% $ 1,728 MessageMedia MESG 24% $ 145 USWeb USWB 70% $ 2,027 Yahoo YHOO 27% $ 12,614 Ziff-Davis ZD 70% $ 1,211 ZDNet ZDZ 85% $ 1,327 E-Loan EELN 9% $ 66 Insweb INSW 28.30% $ 159 Sub total $ 19,276 NASD Japan GeoCities Japan ONSALE Japan Broadcast.com Japan Yahoo Japan CarPoint Japan Misc. Japanese units Est. total $ 20,000 Venture portfolio $ 15,000 Management premium/barrier to entry TOTAL ESTIMATED SOFTBANK VALUE $ 54,276 Some of the key value drivers we believe are sheer girth, diversity of investments in the Internet, geographical and sector investments, Softbank's capital availability, current value of its portfolio, and perhaps greatest of all, Softbank's established positions in key Internet value points. Specifically, we would place a value on Softbank's kereitsu reach across ecommerce (ETrade, E-Loan and private investments), content (Yahoo and ZDNet), community (GeoCities-Yahoo and GeoCities Japan), communication (MessageMedia, Yahoo, broadcast.com Japan), business-to-business (NASD Japan) and the dozens of startups at various stages. In other words, the combination of the portfolio should command a premium to the underlying assets based on the built-in leverage of the portfolio network as a whole. The whole being greater than the parts. Translated that means that it will be extremely difficult if not impossible for a rival to match Softbank's reach and influence in the Internet, especially in Japan. Is Softbank perfect as an investor? No. Quite honestly we believe it made a big mistake buying Kingston and Ziff Davis. It bought into non-Internet assets at a time when Internet was the better choice. At the time of the Kingston acquisition we were dumbfounded as to the benefit of the chip maker with Softbank. Trade magazine publishing giant Ziff Davis and tech trade show king COMDEX had similar reactions from us as being weak investments, although were a little closer related to Internet. While it is difficult to value privately-held assets we place an aggressive 10x multiple on Softbank's venture capital (vs. a 15x historical) and add in a market leader premium to arrive at our estimated fair value of $55 billion. Underscoring this valuation is the fact that a dollar (or yen) in today's Internet spent to build marketshare we believe worth 2x or 3x the cost it will likely be next year. Driving value is the notion that a dollar/yen invested today goes farther than one invested tomorrow. Was true in 1996 when Softbank bought 1/3 of Yahoo for what looks like peanuts and remains true today. That implies that invested capital buys opportunity today at a fairly steep discount to tomorrow's market. The cost of competition drives later entrants in any Internet market to pay up to participate. In short, Softbank (and others investing wisely in the Internet) pay a fraction of the future value of the markets and segments they want to own. NASD Japan, for example, the new stock exchange Softbank announced with NASD. Having locked up NASD for Japan prevents rivals from moving with NASD in that growing theater. Yahoo and GeoCities provide two clear earlier examples. Once Softbank owned a third of Yahoo that percentage ownership alone was a barrier to entry for rival venture investors owning a large slice of Yahoo. So rather than value Softbank as an old-fashioned earnings play we prefer to value it as a portfolio of global Internet companies that continues to invest at paces un-rivaled by any single firm to date. Ichi ban in the dot-com space anyone? *********************************** sign up FREE for this daily analysis at e-harmon.com ************************************ (c) 1999 e-harmon.com, Inc. This analysis may be shared for non-commercial purposes 100 percent intact, with proper copyright and attribution.

To: Redhook who wrote (24297)	11/4/1999 8:27:00 PM
From: LastShadow	Respond to of 43080

Top 100 Mutual Funds Gain since 10/18 is ~6%/week SYMBOL CLOSE CHANGE % (SINCE 10/18/99) WWWFX 33.48 15.65% WWIFX 31.2 28.13% VWUSX 41.76 10.45% VWTKX 45.05 12.40% VWPVX 30.44 13.71% VWMCX 26.48 7.91% VWELX 29.65 4.40% VWEGX 30.92 11.95% VTGIX 29.5 8.74% VPMCX 60.11 9.85% VMCAX 30.03 10.32% VISVX 8.72 3.93% VINIX 124.81 8.71% VIMSX 10.84 10.84% VIGRX 36.16 8.85% VHCOX 20.17 11.19% VHAGX 15.85 7.38% VGHCX 100.48 9.11% VFINX 126.04 8.71% VEXPX 63.01 10.02% VEURX 26.03 4.50% UOPIX 54.21 29.60% UMLGX 15.38 14.01% ULPIX 20.62 17.23% TWCUX 39.49 12.12% TPSCX 30 15.03% TPAGX 27 14.07% TLFQX 33.47 16.78% TISHX 41.79 10.61% THRGX 16.85 17.42% TEQUX 27.35 11.72% STDIX 15.11 8.32% SSETX 42.93 16.85% SBCHX 18.3 11.38% RYOCX 60.78 14.36% RYNVX 37.03 12.86% PVOYX 26.94 13.34% PRITX 16.97 6.80% POTCX 28.32 18.05% PIVCX 47.47 21.41% PIVBX 47.49 21.40% PIVAX 49.26 21.45% PGRWX 20.97 7.93% OAKVX 25.59 12.68% NTCHX 38.14 16.81% NPRTX 26.46 10.02% NGTIX 86.34 25.33% NAESX 22.49 7.61% MUXKX 28.78 8.64% MSCGX 38.03 18.07% MNNAX 49.06 19.60% MIGFX 18.36 11.61% MGFQX 17.58 25.12% MBQRX 21.64 9.51% MBLOX 14.68 2.87% MBHIX 6.56 0.46% MBBAX 37.48 3.68% KOPPX 14.12 16.21% JAVLX 70.34 10.53% JASSX 22.84 7.89% JANSX 42.84 12.00% JAMRX 35.99 12.47% JAEIX 22.42 10.88% IPSMX 51.39 15.72% GABVX 19.36 4.14% FUSEX 48.53 8.69% FTEBX 41.12 10.57% FSTCX 81.18 11.47% FSPTX 120.45 17.40% FSPHX 132.65 9.64% FSENX 22.71 1.43% FSELX 79.24 18.23% FSDCX 46.94 17.94% FSCSX 71.93 15.49% FMAGX 129.23 8.41% FLPSX 21.74 4.47% FJSCX 21.2 16.55% FGRIX 45.12 6.94% FDIVX 21.78 8.30% FDGRX 68.42 12.46% FDCPX 90.28 12.75% FCNTX 62.19 7.45% FBGRX 53.67 9.22% FASMX 17.92 5.91% EXOAX 29.35 11.68% ETGIX 8.97 -9.03% DTGRX 39.4 17.75% DREMX 11.31 2.26% DGVAX 12.09 14.71% DERIX 16.3 3.89% DAGVX 24.77 7.88% CUEGX 45.56 16.61% CFIMX 74.2 2.87% BIGRX 31.72 8.37% BFOCX 25.64 17.18% ATEBX 98.21 15.42% ATCHX 24.08 7.85% APGBX 33.31 10.08% AMSTX 37.46 6.72% ALMRX 11.9 9.37% ALGRX 17.35 11.15% ALARX 16.48 12.95% TOT/AVG 40.033 11.59% lastshadow