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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Rose who wrote (32290)	11/4/1999 7:40:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 99985

Robert, yes, i believe this is a blow-off. i haven't said 'top'. not yet, anyway<ggg>. and no, i haven't characterized a move as such before. i thought on several occasions that the beginning of the blow-off i was long expecting may be at hand, but the market was always turned back down before a bona fide break-out occurred. this seems to me to be the real thing, based on the violence of the move and the extremely high volume that goes with it. another characteristic that is evident is that it is the most speculative and overvalued sectors that are driving the bulk of this move. there are so many stocks that have simply gone parabolic in this latest advance in spite of being at valuation extremes never before seen in the history of speculating man (and i mean NEVER), that i don't think this is such a strong statement. when, and at what level the blow-off will top out i cannot say. in the course of the move there may well be pullbacks that look like the top, but are actually not it. they should be sharp, swift, and be quickly left behind. the truth is that the top could be in tomorrow, or it could be in in three months time...that's really impossible to say. the blow-off stage in the Nikkei took almost a year to reach it's conclusion, and it was a big move, very profitable for those who played it - and got out in time. i have written a post a few months ago about the possible characteristics of the TOP...i'll see if i can find it, otherwise i'll post my views on that anew. but not today...i'm going to sleep now. regards and good night, hb