SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: James Clarke who wrote (8896)11/5/1999 12:51:00 PM
From: Paul Senior  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78628
 
GPC vs. GRR and stock selection. Jim, I think they might be comparables. But for me, not because of their business model similarities. Rather for how they both trade relative to their dividend yield. I bought GRR last year for its relatively high dividend yield and planned to sell when the yield dropped. (-g-I've got another model that I use for long-established multi-billion dollar companies where I can put some visual boundaries around the relationship of price to dividend to the overall market yield.) Anyway, my model and interpretation would show that a buy point for GPC would be about when the dividend is around 2%. That'd mean a buy anywhere under $50/sh assuming the current $1.04 dividend. I'd be in a losing situation now if I had followed that model -g-. I have trouble even conceptualizing GPC @$50, let alone a buy point there.

Sometimes though, the stocks in this model do take a while to work out. (For example, I'm still holding JPM (1996 postings) for a target price - last time I calculated- of $165). So, imo, a purchase of GPC now has to be undertaken with some expectation that it may take several years for it to work out favorably. That's why it might be a choice for a Mom account. Even if I assume my model is outmoded or inaccurate or inappropriate, I believe GPC can trade once again on a 3% yield (=$35/sh if div. is $1.04)

I'm starting a small position today.

ASIDE: I would like to say to the thread that I am NOT a person "who never met a stock he didn't like." --g--. Even if I am buying a lot of different stocks lately. It's just that in the kind of market we've had, given the amount of thought that I've put into a stock like GPC, and given the ease of exit (internet trading)--- I would rather be somewhat sure I'm correct about the stock and be in it for a small amount, than risk time or opportunity by trying to be 100% sure.

Maybe it's a matter of pain control. I'd rather lose a little money on GPC if it doesn't work out, than have to whine and bemoan my stupidity because I was lazy,scared,etc. and didn't buy the stock when I thought about it back in Nov. '99 and it looked good (to me) at $26 but I just didn't act and now it's $36, and how could I have been so wrong/stupid/etc or prejudiced against the co. not to have bought even a little.

And while I don't expect a stock like GPC to make any kind of move soon (there's no hurry to buy), I can buy it, monitor it, see how the situation and my knowledge of it develop, and also still move on to something else. This same idea carries through to Vulcan (VUL) another stock discussed here. An obviously undervalued stock at current price that may take years to work out. I'm buying a small amount to tuck into the value section of one of my portfolios.

Paul