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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Terry D who wrote (54039)	11/5/1999 9:23:00 AM
From: ChanceIs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

EIA Predicts '99 crude stock at 301MM....... "The U.S. Energy Information Administration Thursday revised down by 9 million and 2 million barrels its estimate for crude oil stocks at the end of the current quarter and the first quarter of next year, respectively. In the latest monthly update of its short-term energy outlook, the EIA predicted U.S. crude oil stocks will total 301 million barrels on Dec. 31 and 319 million barrels by March 31, 2000." canoe.ca What am I missing? For 10/29/99 DOE and API respectively reported 304.7MM barrels and 304.89MM barrels in US storage. So the EIA predicts only a draw of 3.75 MM between now and the end of '99??????????? Also the EIA predicts that US production will average 207K/day less in '99 than '98. However if you look at the DOE site: ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/weekly_petroleum_status_report/current/txt/wpsr.txt we already have that the 301 day cumulative average for '99 is 321K less than the same parameter for '98. Hello??? EIA also says that '99 non OPEC (I expect that includes the US) production will be down 200K over '98. The US is already down 321K. How about the North Sea where drilling has almost stopped and the non OPEC parties cooperating with OPEC or just plain not drilling. Why is there so much confusion in these statistics?? If I believe EIA than I sell my OSX stocks noow and run. I like Simmons and am holding.

To: Terry D who wrote (54039)	11/5/1999 10:44:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

re: "Maxwell Smart"... TerryD; first - unlike the prior rumors; this one was founded on the "Call" that he would sell his block of Citigroup and was moving cash to "Oil Stocks"... No individual stock mentioned; ie: your Buffet/Chubb, or Talal/Compaq earlier rumors... This was a "sector" play, and we shall see... He "did" sell his Citigroup. "Maxwell Smart" ? no, and no possible personal motive - as there is no specific individual companies mentioned... and we are allready fully invested for the most part on this thread. This is virtually inconsequential news. Only time will tell. Watch next wednesday for the breakout- post the Tuesday API's and see if we do not see some short selling/shake out pressure on the sector leaders here, through Tuesday... Cramer's article today on the Oil Sector suffering from tax selling and many analyst comments such as Merrills commentary that many Institutional clients are cashing in the big profits made on E&P & OSX stocks that were purchased in Jan-Feb; and using those gains to move into the momenteum sectors such as technology here of late. The way I see it; this is a good, healthy turnover of the money in the Oilpatch. The momenteum players are moving out; and now the Energy & Value funds are buying on dips steadilly here of late; and we only need the fundamentally supported breakout back to OSX 80+ to bring back the mo-mo money; which will come - especially if we see the major NASDQ pop continue here. There will be lots of profit taking as the Dow breaks 11,000 & the NASDQ continues its run. Y2K in Europe & the 3rd world will be a factor for Oil prices... We have not had a fall/winter Oilpatch rally yet; we will... allways have, allways will. OSX 85-90ish in weeks. The fundamentals of the E&P's here are superb. Co's like UPR OEI PXD who have restructured their balance sheets will generate substantial free cash flow to further pay down debt and support substantial upside. ChanceIs - re: PXD; of course they've trimmed assets and like OEI for example; have suffered a lack of support from the Street for production shortfalls; but - year 2000 is the turnaround point productionwise; many of these turn-around stories will have near double digit production growth in 2000. PXD within 2-3 qtrs will absolutely be generating production, revenue, cfps and earnings to support is prior $24ish valuation level in a postive sentiment market. PXD sold $425M in assets, but also paired debt by over $500M. There are refocused into their 4 core areas of Sparaberry, Argentina, Houghton/west panhandle & Canada.With their debt paydown, they are now free of bank restrictions and can move back into the acquisition mode in their core areas - with I think 20-30% of their 200 cap ex budget set for further acquisitions. PXD unquestioanbly is a "Value" story here at $10. The story for E&P's will be multiple expansion from the bottom of its historic range to the middle, or even the top of the range - of which the top of the multiple range is presently clearly supported by Crude & Gas prices; but only 2-3-4 more reporting qtrs will move the street to price these stocks back at the top of the multiple range. All though; a $30 crude bubble this winter may accelerate that sector multiple more rapidly than many believe... You either "believe" - "the story"; that this cycle will finally be "Global demand growth" driven; and that the street will ultimately support these stocks with historic multiple valuations... Imho; this is one of the great sector buying opps here. You either believe, or you don't... history certainly shows us that 35-50% sector breakouts can happen in weeks; so - one can easilly miss boarding the OSX train... You buy your ticket & take your chances... You want to be buying Qualcom at $250 here, or OEI at $8 ? ... to each their own.