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Gold/Mining/Energy : SOUTHERNERA (t.SUF) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Shaw who wrote (4894)	11/5/1999 12:08:00 PM
From: gemsearcher	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7235

Hi Dean. I don't think Messina is in the share price. Messina is too far from Missouri and all of the analysts are in Missouri when it comes to SUF. I think the market will only recognize Messina when the bankable comes in and the deal closes. Regards

To: Shaw who wrote (4894)	11/5/1999 1:08:00 PM
From: russet	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7235

Hi Dean, When you look at the history of the company over the last 5 years, there has been many disappointments, false hopes and broken promises due to unforeseen problems. As a result, management has become very conservative in their reporting, to the point that they have ratcheted expectations of future earnings down, so as not to disappoint again. The market has taken a "show me" attitude, but other companies with smaller resource sizes, are getting, or have gotten huge market caps in comparison,...ARP, PGD come to mind. No analyst is willing to stick their necks out on SUF at this time and be disappointed again. Even when the numbers come out, I imagine the market reaction will be muted, until further announcements pertaining to Klipspringer, Marsfontein and Camafuca come out in 2000. Do share prices represent anything more than what people are prepared to pay for a stock. History says no. We can do all the calculations we want, but psychology is the only real determining factor of share price. The way to get the biggest gains, is to buy stocks you feel have great prospects for the future, and whose psychology sucks. SUF is one. Is Messina worth $51,000,000,...the present market cap of SUF. That's about the first two years earnings (bottom line earnings) using the present figures and SUF acquiring 54% (they could go for 70%). I don't think the earnings are in the stock at all, but psychology is all that matters. Figures are used for justification purposes only. The Messina resource could be triple the present size. The deposit is open in two directions, and additional reefs known to be on the property, but not drill proven have not been included in the announcements to date. That had to be pulled from management at the last AGM. If one thing is reflected in the stock price, it is pessimism. In any case, take a chance, chit your pants,...nothing is a sure thing. :-))))))