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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (1215)	11/5/1999 2:05:00 PM
From: TWICK	Respond to of 19219

The suspense is killing me. lol !! Twick

To: J.T. who wrote (1215)	11/5/1999 2:38:00 PM
From: J.T.	Respond to of 19219

MSFT RULING: MSFT RULING (POS OR NEG) WILL LEAD MARKET 1,200 DOW POINTS UP OR DOWN FROM DOW 10,700 BETWEEN NOW AND YEAR-END '99. WILL MSFT SEAL THE DEAL TO NEW BROAD MARKET HIGHS OR KILL THE GOLDEN GOOSE DEAD IN ITS TRACKS AND PRO-LONG CORRECTION? MSFT stock is like boiling water in covered pot that is emitting steam and MSFT is going to blow the lid off of the top. This is going to provide the momentum or excuse to go higher or lower in the broad market. Employment numbers gave market green light and Greenspan will not raise rates until early next year.... if rates are even raised. MSFT is the spark that is going to get the engine running hard up or down into year end. On the upside, DOW and SPX and BKX et all have been consolidating in this trading range since late March and you can make an easy argument based on it ready to break out of this range and head higher based on macro-economy of benign inflation, record earnings and moderate PEG going forward. COMP and NDX are stealthlike and ready to continue this parabolic upside blow-off into year end. New highs then in the offing which will take DOW and SPX roughly 5% above previous all time highs. This would lead us to roughly DOW 11,900 and SPX 1,490 intraday by yearend. The backdrop is then set for Y2K. Also, coincidentally, people will talk about the same thing as NIKKEI in '89 where it hit its all time high the last trading day of 89. NIKKEI then proceeded to drop 28% a full three months later. This final blow-off would then set us up for another correction. Whether it is THE CORRECTION will remain an open question. On the downside, one can make an easy case that MSFT bad ruling casts a cloud over market and we go back and test and break through recent lows to this DOW 9,500 level and SPX 1,200 level and potentially lower depending on how fast things unravel from a momentum consideration. With most indices in overbought territory, and NDX and COMP already in parabolic blow-off, you could easily see NDX test NDX 2,080 area intraday before turning up. This would coincide with self fulfilling prophecy of Y2K fears and more market consolidation until March and then we rally back to test and possibly break previous highs on major indices in late summer August before potentially heading back down in the fall. Best regards, J.T.