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Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Dog Pound -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Bill Wexler who wrote (4675)11/5/1999 8:54:00 PM
From: Peter V  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10293
 
What effect do you think the monopolist finding will have on your MSFT puts and calls?



To: Bill Wexler who wrote (4675)11/5/1999 8:59:00 PM
From: RockyBalboa  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10293
 
What do you expect for MSFT after the announcement?



To: Bill Wexler who wrote (4675)11/8/1999 4:39:00 AM
From: Bill Wexler  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10293
 
Yet more about MSFT.

I received two emails asking why I didn't wait until *after* the decision to issue a buy rec. - I'll answer publicly.

1) I assumed that a lot of negativity was already built into the stock price. This fight with DOJ has been going on a long time, and I imagine that institutions with large positions have already thought about possible negative outcomes.

2) There was a small, but still real chance that the decision would be neutral or positive. In which case the price of the stock would skyrocket immediately.

3) I could not imagine anything the DOJ could do that would impact MSFT's bottom line - as I said before, the only true impetus to the stock price.

4) Upon a negative ruling, I didn't foresee an extreme selloff. In fact I thought the stock would recover from any sort of selloff very quickly.

Since there was a possibility the stock would get a lot more expensive fast, and the downside risk was temporary and minimal, the only logical outcome is to buy the stock as close to the decision as you can get.

Long time followers of this thread should know by now that I always buy quality companies in "end of the world" panics.

In this case you have the highest quality company on Earth and an "end of the world" scenario which for all intents and purposes will do absolutely nothing to decrease long-term shareholder value and in the greatest of all ironies may very well increase it at an even more rapid clip.

Opportunities like this do not come along very often.