ROBERTSON STEPHENS The Internet Stock Team --------------------------------------------------------------------- Unsubscribe: internetstocks.com If you do not have access to a browser, please reply to internetstocks@rsco.com with the message "unsubscribe" in the subject box. Mailing List Changes: internetstocks.com --------------------------------------------------------------------- November 5, 1999
The Web Report - Volume 2, Issue #44
Internetstocks.com Overview - Keith E. Benjamin - mailto:keith@rsco.com
This week, the NETDEX index increased 10% to 664.64 compared with the NASDAQ, which increased 7% from last week.
While the NETDEX is up approximately 63% from its August low, it is still down about 17% from its all-time high of 801.41 on April 13. If we look at percentage changes from low to high in previous quarters (particularly last year's fourth quarter), the NETDEX was up 202.4% in Q4:98, 66.0% in Q1:99, 69.6% in Q2:99, 47.1% in Q3:99 and 20.4% so far in Q4:99
REPORTING SEASON IS ENDING WITH MIXED STOCK RESULTS - While we still expect a big commerce boost, the cost of cutting through the competitive clutter appears to have caused fears for the eTail stocks. We expect a few companies to break out with enough December quarter revenues to help eTail stocks recover, but we fear languishing for the next few weeks.
The major network stocks led the non-eTailers through a continued rally this week. Here competition appears less of a concern. Standout stocks have included those companies providing content and services to other sites and businesses.
We remain relatively aggressive on stocks during this post-reporting period, as discussed below, expecting continued divergence.
eTail Update - Lauren Cooks Levitan - mailto:lauren@rsco.com
The eTailDEX fell for a fourth straight week to 1062.81, down 10% from 1186.45 last week, which was down 5.2% from the prior week.
The index is up 31% from the recent low of 812.5 on August 4 but still down 41% from the 52-week high of 1807.45. In fact, the eTailDEX has declined in six of the last seven weeks, even while the Nasdaq has hit new highs.
eTAILING STOCK STRATEGY FOR THE HOLIDAY SEASON - We believe the market has caught a fairly severe case of post-reporting season syndrome (stocks in our coverage universe are currently down 12.5% on average since before they reported September quarter results). Amazon, eBay, eToys and others set an ugly pattern of reporting better-than-expected results, reflecting strong consumer demand and solid momentum, offset by almost universal increases in operating expenses, presumably to help better arm them to capture and retain existing customers in the face of so many well-financed new entrants. The challenge we see for investors is to determine which companies really are spending to ensure success and leadership in a bigger potential business long-term versus those companies that are just throwing good money after bad. This confusion and the deferral of profitability have created a great deal of sloppiness in the group. It is our sense that we are now in a holding pattern as we await indications of which companies are truly performing well during the holiday season. Fortunately, we believe we are only about three to four weeks away from gaining some insights into these differences in execution. The proximity to these potential catalysts argues for working on establishing a shopping list of stocks today.
ON OUR SHOPPING LIST* On our shopping list of large cap stocks, we remain focused on Amazon.com and Priceline.com. We see even greater opportunity in some small cap names that we believe have solid business models centered on higher gross margins and higher average transaction sizes, which better support the funding of brand-building and infrastructure building initiatives. Key examples of companies that fit these criteria, in our view, are Alloy Online and Global Sports (which have not yet reported their Q3 results). We believe other examples include Garden.com and Ashford.com. We expect Alloy Online could stand out from the pack of eTailers when it reports by likely capitalizing on its high gross margins (approximately 50%) to convert better-than-expected sales into better-than-expected improvements in profitability.
OUR TOOL FOR IDENTIFYING THE BEST PERFORMERS - THE ONLINE SHOPPING CHALLENGE - We recently launched a new area on Internetstocks.com for our Online Shopping Challenge (powered by BizRate.com), and our second week of results have arrived. We did not see any major shifts in consumer attitudes compared to last week, and shopping experiences in general seem to be satisfactory. Given that our initial results are coming at the very beginning of online shopping for the upcoming holiday season, we are not surprised by this week's small variance. So far we believe customer retention could prove the most pressing issue for eTailers this season. With 25% of surveys indicating they were unlikely to shop at that same site again, we believe emphasis on customer service and controlling the entire customer experience could be the single most differentiating factor this holiday season. Further, we view an eTailer's ability to monetize its existing customer base as crucial to its long-term profitability potential. In the past, we have highlighted eTailers such as Amazon and eToys because of their meticulous attention to providing superior customer support. We believe this strategy is winning customers and fueling higher repeat purchase rates.
While drawing any conclusions from this early wave of results would be premature, we nonetheless look forward to monitoring how traffic patterns and customer experiences evolve as the holiday shopping season heats up. If you shopped online recently or plan to in the near future, we hope you'll fill out a brief survey regarding the quality of your shopping experience. Maybe you'll be the lucky winner of the $10,000 online shopping spree! www.internetstocks.com. internetstocks.com
FIRST EUPOPEAN MEASUREMENTS - Media Metrix released its first European Web usage metrics this week. Given several of the eTailers we follow (including Amazon, eBay and eToys) are aggressively expanding into Europe, we are actively monitoring trends that could deviate from what we see in the U.S. Among our coverage universe, Amazon stands out as a top 25 Web site property in both the U.K. and German markets, the first two European countries it has entered. We believe European Internet usage is at an early stage of growth and could mimic earlier U.S. trends. For example, metrics such as average usage days and unique pages viewed are 32% and 54% below current U.S. levels, respectively, but inline with U.S. data points one to two years ago. We also believe the demographic makeup of European users is similar to U.S. users during the early stages of usage growth. While 70% of users are male in France and Germany, we expect women could achieve parity similar to usage trends in the U.K., where 51% of users are male. Overall, we believe European markets could experience even more explosive growth in online sales than the U.S. given lower cost Internet access and a higher quality shopping experience at an earlier stage of penetration (as companies benefit from the experiences of U.S. eTailing pioneers). Further, we see even bigger opportunities for some of the newer, value-driven pricing models facilitated by the Internet, given discount shopping is not as prevalent in Europe and price discrimination across countries creates a greater value proposition versus in the U.S. market.
ETOYS HOOKS UP WITH THE GAP - This week eToys, in conjunction with The Gap, announced a new marketing initiative between the two companies. During the holiday season, customers making a purchase of $75 or more at eToys will receive a $10 gift certificate redeemable at GapKids or babyGap online and retail stores and vice versa. We view The Gap's decision to co-market its baby and children focused brands with eToys as indicative of eToys' superior brand perception and relationship with consumers of children's products. As we have written in previous eTailing Updates, part of our recent enthusiasm for eToys' stock has been associated with a supply/demand imbalance in the shares caused by the small float of 9.6 million shares relative to a considerable short position of approximately 6.5 million shares. This week eToys' released 9.5 million, or 10%, of its locked up shares in advance of the planned November 16 full release, effectively doubling its float. Shares of eToys fell 27%in the three days following the early release announcement. While we expect eToys' shares could remain sloppy over the coming weeks, we continue to view eToys as a core eTailing holding. Thus, we recommend investors take advantage of declines of an additional 25% or more to create or add to positions and look for additional developments related to new marketing alliances (such as the Gap partnership), and/or indications that holiday performance is significantly ahead of expectations as potential positive catalysts, which could overwhelm selling pressure created by the increased float.
EBAY INVESTS IN BUSINESS-TO-BUSINESS AUCTION COMPANY - eBay and Benchmark Capital (one of eBay's original venture backers) led a $22 million third-round financing in TradeOut.com, a business-to-business auction site. In our view, eBay's investment gives it a seat at the playing table, which could become very interesting (and valuable) over the next year. We believe eBay could leverage its experiences creating the world's largest dominant online trading community and make a serious run at leading the B2B market as well. We suspect this investment is only one step in the company's plan to extend its reach to the B2B space, and we will continue to monitor eBay's strategy in this burgeoning market.
PREVIEW TRAVEL TAKES FIRST STEP TOWARDS WHOLESALE MODEL - Preview Travel announced that Hotel Reservation Network (HRN), a leading supplier of negotiated hotel rooms, will be its preferred supplier of deep discount hotel rooms. We have anticipated Preview's move into wholesale travel products and view this alliance as the first of three steps for the company. Beginning later this quarter, Preview will offer negotiated room rates through HRN and book the agent revenue. We believe the next step for Preview would be to become the merchant of record for the rooms it is selling through HRN. While gross margin would be much lower on these transactions, Preview would book the value of the sale and as a result, net revenues could show significant growth. While critics could argue the accounting treatment of such sales is more a matter of perception, we believe Preview can grow its core business as less expensive wholesale travel products appeal to value-oriented leisure travelers. Finally, we believe the final step for Preview would be to personally negotiate room rates without the aid of HRN, a move that could be greatly enhanced by the combined data of Preview Travel and Travelocity and which could drive better margins.
GARDEN.COM BLOOMS IN ITS FIRST EARNINGS RELEASE AS A PUBLIC COMPANY - Garden.com reported Q1:F00 sales, gross margins, operating margins and loss per share ahead of our expectations. In our view, these results portend strong momentum going into the important holiday gift-giving season. Garden.com announced several new marketing initiatives, including agreements with iVillage, Excite@Home, and Southern Living, which we believe could lead to significant longer term gains in brand awareness and Web site traffic. While expenses related to these deals are expected to widen losses in the near term, we view these agreements as integral components of Garden.com's future growth plans. We were also excited about the company's launch of its new cut flower product, which we believe could attract a more diverse demographic of online shoppers. In our view, Garden.com is emerging with a second wave of eTailing stocks that boast both higher gross margins and leadership in attractive niche markets. We continue to recommend purchase of Garden.com's shares in advance of the positive shift we expect in investor attention toward this up and coming second wave of value-added specialty eTailing stocks.
VALUE AMERICA REPORTS STRONG Q3 RESULTS - Value America reported an impressive 61% sequential growth in revenues as well as a smaller per share loss. We were encouraged by Value America's dramatic improvement in gross margin, which increased 340 basis points to 6%, well ahead of our estimate of 3.3%, reflecting better economies of scale. We believe that Value America's ability to drive strong sales growth while also expanding gross margin reflects the company's emerging opportunity to break away from what has become a pack of lower margin eTailers with discount valuations relative to the eTailing group.
GLOBAL SPORTS SHOWS US WHAT IT'S BEEN UP TO - Global Sports launched its first two sites this week, www.theathletesfoot.com and www.thesportsauthority.com. We expect the Web sites of the company's other retail partners to commence operations throughout the week, with a broad marketing partnership with Yahoo! to begin this weekend. In recent weeks, we believe that the market has started recognizing the value of the company's unique business model and has been waiting for Global Sports to launch its network of Web sites. Now that two sites have launched and two are imminent, we believe the market should react favorably to having live operations upon which it can attach a value. It appears that Global Sports' timing was well-placed, with the holiday season just around the corner and the Sports and Outdoor category reporting the largest monthly unique visitor gains among all shopping categories in September, according to Media Metrix data. Later this month, the company is expected to open its co-branded and co-marketed sporting goods store through The Sports Authority with WebMD on the new sports medicine and fitness channel to be created by WebMD and HEALTHSOUTH. Beyond that, we look for further announcements regarding new online partnerships, additions to the company's portfolio of retail partners, and extensions of Global Sports' current partnerships, to serve as potential stock price catalysts.
PLANETRx - INITIATED COVERAGE OF LEADING ONLINE HEALTH CARE SITE - This week, we initiated coverage of PlanetRx.com. We believe the site has emerged as a leader in the online health care market, offering one of the largest selections of health and personal care products available on the Internet. The company is also the exclusive online pharmacy to Express Scripts, the third largest Pharmacy Benefits Manager (PBM) in the United States with more than 36 million members. We believe the company has developed a unique approach to the large, attractive and competitive health care space by combining content and community elements with commerce. Specifically, the company's model includes the operation of satellite sites and eCenters, dedicated to specific health conditions (like diabetes.com), that encourage high margin sponsorship revenues and customer loyalty. This point of differentiation, as well as the company's in-house pharmacy, fulfillment and call center operations, establish opportunities for consistent gross margin improvements and competitive advantage, in our view. The company continues to win praise from outside observers, including being named the top online drugstore this week by eMarketer. Over time, we believe PlanetRx has the potential to emerge as the next eTailing franchise stock.
eNetwork Update - Michael Graham - mailto:michael@rsco.com
SLOW NEWS WEEK - We focus this week on a few names without much current news but for which we see positive developments on the horizon. First, though, the last of the names to report recently:
STUDENT ADVANTAGE MAKES THE GRADE - Q3 revenues of $8.6 million were significantly higher than our estimate of $7.3 million. Student Advantage ended Q3:99 with 790,000 members, up 68% from 470,000 at the end of Q3:98. Traffic reached more than 25 million page views in September. Media Metrix measured more than 900,000 unique users to the FANSonly Network in September. We believe that Student Advantage will be executing more and bigger sponsorships over the next six months. We also believe Student Advantage is out in front in the race to build lifetime brand loyalty with an extremely attractive demographic, to which it can continue to market, even after college. We believe that Student Advantage will provide upside to our estimates from expanding the membership base, increasing the revenue generated per member and possible acquisitions.
THE BUTLER TAKES THE LIFT - We believe investors are awakening to the potentially huge market opportunity that Ask Jeeves is serving with its recently invigorated corporate licensing business. As more companies seek to sell products online, Jeeves offers a proven, cost effective way to manage online customer relationships with the company's proprietary question and answer database technology. While it is never easy to pin a valuation on a stock that is up 260% in the past month, we believe the stock is beginning to be viewed in a new light. Rather than being compared to consumer content focused sites, we believe Jeeves compares more similarly to business enabling software companies that sport 2000 revenue multiples of upwards of 80x versus Jeeves current multiple of 45x. We would also like to remind investors that in Q3 Jeeves beat our revenue estimate by 67%, helped largely by its corporate business momentum. We have raised our revenue estimate for 2002 from $140 million to $250 million and believe the leverage of the AskJeeves model could produce significant upside in revenue and earnings. This appears to be "Amazon-like" revenue growth, and we believe this could be one of the most compelling Internet investment opportunities of the coming year. We expect more positive news to act as catalysts for the stock as it continues to sign large corporate contracts.
AOL LEADS CHARGE INTO HOLIDAYS - We continue to be impressed with AOL's expanding shopping efforts as we enter the holiday season. We believe the stock will react positively to incremental news on the shopping front, as seen with the company's recent alliance with Blockbuster and $30 million investment in Blockbuster.com. Also this week the company reported that it has signed more than 160 new eCommerce agreements and renewed 95% of its agreements with current shopping partners, bringing the total number of merchants on Shop@AOL to more than 275. We believe these data points help reinforce our belief that AOL has several eCommerce contracts that are at or near performance thresholds that could entitle the company to a share of the eTailing revenue. As background, we suspect that most commerce deals are structured so that AOL first receives a "rent" payment for allowing merchants to conduct business on its network. After a certain time period or dollar amount we believe that AOL shares in the ongoing commerce revenue in addition to the rent payment,. We believe many contracts are nearing this point. We believe the stock can move back to previous highs by the end of January 2000, with substantial upside to our ad/commerce estimate in the December quarter.
eMarketing Update - Lowell J. Singer - mailto:lowell@rsco.com
ONLINE ADVERTISING CONTINUES TO GROW: The Internet Advertising Bureau issued a report this week that estimated Q2 online advertising at $934 million versus an estimated $700 million in Q1. This report suggests that our original 1999 advertising spending estimate of $2.9 million could prove to be conservative. We believe these gains are being driven by current Web advertisers committing larger portions of their budgets to the Internet as well as by the addition of new Web advertisers. In our view, the IAB report supports our long-held belief that the Internet will be an increasingly powerful advertising channel and that advertisers will devote more spending to the Web. We believe that Web advertising companies like DoubleClick and CMGI will benefit over the long-term from this trend.
MEDIA METRIX STRENGTHENS COMPETITIVE POSITION: We believe that Media Metrix has enhanced its competitive position with several initiatives over the past month. The company improved its ability to track Web advertising spending with its acquisition of AdRelevance for $65 million. Media Metrix also announced a strategic partnership with Information Resources that will offer consumer packaged goods companies a method to track consumers' Internet usage. Media Metrix also just completed the first phase of its international expansion with the introduction of a European measurement report. We believe that our revenue and EPS assumptions could prove conservative driven by upside from all three of these initiatives. In our view, the stock has been volatile over the past week due to concerns about overhang following the company's three million share secondary offering. We believe that Media Metrix should be a core Internet holding and would view any weakness in the stock as a buying opportunity.
eBusiness Update - Eric Upin - mailto:eric@rsco.com
LEADING B2B PLAYERS CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY - GAINING SIZE AND SHARE
The B2B eCommerce group' market cap now totals more than $41 billion - as the space continues to expand from $1 billion on January 1 (Concur and Getty Images were the only B2B companies public at that time). In comparison, the aggregate market cap of the B2C space is approximately $500 billion. Several names delivered significant returns this week on the heels of strategic partnership announcements. PurchasePro.com (PPRO), Commerce One (CMRC), ICG (ICGE) and VerticalNet (VERT) were up 95%, 50%, 30% and 23%, respectively. The B2B group as a whole outperformed the NASDAQ, gaining 25% for the week compared to 7% for the NASDAQ .
We maintain our Buy ratings on Internet Capital Group, VerticalNet, Primus, Chemdex, and Getty Images.
ICG MOVES INTO EUROPE AND ADDS TO PORTFOLIO - OUR #1 PICK AND FAVORITE NAME ICG announced this week its plans to expand into the European market - opening an office in London. The company has hired two senior people from Apax Partners, a large venture capital firm in Europe, to head the practice. We view this as a positive move - enabling ICG to apply its investment and incubator model to a huge, early stage market. In addition, ICG made a $50 million investment in a company offering a B2B play on the cattle industry - an estimated $54 billion market opportunity in the U.S. The company provides real-time, online cattle sales and auctions, as well as industry-specific content. It also leverages its health, quality and inventory management technology to facilitate the buying and selling of livestock over the Internet. We believe this investment adds a large segment of the agricultural industry to ICG's portfolio of target markets - and the opportunity to cross-pollinate with related industries. ICG is our favorite name in the B2B space. VERTICALNET PARTNERS WITH PURCHASEPRO.COM - VerticalNet announced a revenue-sharing partnership with PurchasePro.com consistent with its strategy of partnering with eCommerce market makers and infrastructure players. Initially, VerticalNet will integrate PurchasePro.com's procurement solution into its FoodServiceCentral and E-Hospitality sites, which target the food service industry. In addition, the partnership will broaden VerticalNet's audience in the hospitality vertical - as the PurchasePro.com commerce network includes Caesars Palace, Carnival Cruise Lines, and MGM Grand. We believe the PurchasePro.com deal is another positive move by VerticalNet to expand its user population and accelerate commerce revenues by partnering with complementary players - as evidenced by the recently announced PaperExchange and IBM partnerships. We continue to like the VerticalNet story. COMMERCE ONE ANNOUNCES DEAL WITH GENERAL MOTORS - Commerce One and General Motors announced plans to launch a B2B marketplace for GM's dealers and suppliers - representing a $90 billion annual supply chain. By linking dealers and suppliers, the site will enable the real-time exchange of information, thereby improving suppliers' visibility into market demand and production planning. GM also intends to move its procurement processes online as well as to incorporate the site into the Commerce One Global Trading Web. This announcement follows a newly formed partnership between Oracle and Ford, in which Ford will move its $80 billion in annual purchasing to their jointly-developed site - with the intention of ultimately conducting online transactions for its extended supply chain. Both GM and Ford plan to launch their sites in Q1:2000. GETTY IMAGES REPORTS SOLID Q3:99 RESULTS - STOCK ATTRACTIVE AT THESE LEVELS, IN OUR VIEW - Getty reported revenues of $60.8 million (representing 24% growth year/year) and EBITDA/Share of $0.21. eCommerce revenues are accelerating from $24.0 million in the first half of 1999 to $19.4 million in Q3:99 alone (representing 164% growth year/year). eCommerce sales accounted for 32% of the total revenue mix in the quarter compared to 15% in Q3:98. eCommerce is also generating new customers and sales - as evidenced by Tony Stone, where one-third of revenues are from new customers. We believe the Getty story has been overlooked. While we recognize there have been several issues surrounding the company, Getty is expanding its market opportunity and eCommerce revenues, which are approaching an $80 million run rate. At 3.2x our C2000 revenue estimate, we believe there is room for significant stock appreciation.
eFinance - Weekly Stock Volume Report - Scott Appleby - mailto:scott@rsco.com
VOLUMES UPDATE - Volumes for the NetDex and TechDex have increased since last week. Volumes in the Internet sector for the week of November 2 came in at 816 million shares traded, up 13% from last week's volume of 713 million shares traded. To date, this quarters' average weekly volume of 788 million is 9% higher than last quarters' average weekly volume of 722 million. The TechDex, which includes all stocks represented in the NetDex, also experienced strong volume. This week's volume was 6% higher than last week's, coming in at 1.66 billion shares traded versus 1.56 billion. Average weekly volume for 4Q to date is 1.59 billion shares traded, 11% greater than last quarter's average volume of 1.43 billion shares traded.
This week, the eBrokerDex closed at 129, a considerable improvement over last week's close of 104 and above last quarters' ending Index of 112, but far below the year's Index high of 280, achieved on April 13.
Knight/Trimark's Nasdaq/OTC AutEx volumes continue to show improvement this quarter. This week's AutEx volume for Knight/Trimark was 1,105 million, up 14% over last week from 970 million. This week, Knight/Trimark's market share was 15.54% versus last week's 15.36%. We believe that although Knight/Trimark ran into some trouble in 3Q99 given the poor operating environment, the company is beginning to demonstrate its leadership.
AMERITRADE REPORTS Q4 RESULTS - Ameritrade reported a solid fourth quarter, in-line with our estimates. Revenues were $74.5 million and net new accounts were 54,982, slightly exceeding our revenue expectations of $72.4 million and new account estimates of 51,637. Earnings per share were in-line with our expectations at $0.05. Customer assets under management increased slightly in the fourth quarter to $22.9 billion, a 1% increase from third quarter's $22.6 billion. Of note was the sequential rise in net interest revenue of 17.4%. We believe this shows that in less favorable trading environments, Ameritrade continues to benefit from its cash and margin balances, and, in a more mature operating environment, the company can manage earnings better by managing its marketing expense. Ameritrade spent $24.6 million in Other (where investments in technology show up) expenses versus our estimate of $20 million. For 1Q00, Ameritrade launched a $200 million advertising campaign and management indicated that $60-70 million will be spent in the first quarter of fiscal 2000. The company estimates the acquisition cost per new account to be in the neighborhood of $200-300 for the first quarter of fiscal 2000.
AMERITRADE LAUNCHES WIRELESS WEB TRADING THROUGH SPRINT PCS - The company also has announced a strategic alliance with Sprint PCS and became the first brokerage firm to allow investors access to its Web site online via wireless telephone. Ameritrade investors have anytime, anywhere access to their accounts, can place trades and receive stock alerts via the Internet using Sprint PCS.
E*TRADE AND TALK.COM FORM A STRATEGIC MARKETING AGREEMENT - E*Trade and Talk.com announced a new marketing partnership. With this agreement, E*Trade adds a portfolio of telecom services and a number of promotional initiatives. Talk.com, a leader in telecommunications, directly bills phone costs via credit card and allows customers to view billing records online in "real-time". KNIGHT-TRIMARK PARTNERS WITH OPTIMARK - Knight-Trimark has announced a strategic alliance with OptiMark Technologies. According to the agreement, Knight-Trimark will begin using OptiMark's electronic match trading system for a portion of its trades. Going forward, the company will receive warrants for OptiMark stock based on Knight-Trimark's trading volume through the system. While specific terms of the warrant agreement have not been disclosed, OptiMark indicated that Knight-Trimark could become its largest equity holder if certain volume levels are achieved. In the short-term, we do not believe that this alliance will materially impact Knight-Trimark's business model or earnings. We anticipate that Knight-Trimark will proceed cautiously before committing large trading volumes to the system. Longer-term, the OptiMark system may enable Knight-Trimark to manage its inventory and to lower executions costs. However, we believe that success of the alliance depends upon OptiMark's ability to generate additional volume and liquidity from other trading partners.
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Ticker Rating Price Price 11/4 10/28 1-Wk 52-Wk Chg Chg High 52Wk 10/28 High to to 11/4 11/4
ALOY BUY $13 1/2 $13 1/3 |