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Biotech / Medical : Elan Corporation, plc (ELN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary Korn who wrote (610)	11/5/1999 5:45:00 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 10345

I recently entered HLIT at 49 1/2 and exited at 62 1/2. HLIT had a very similar sell off and despite bright prospects for that industry HLIT is by no means as fundamentally sound as ELN. If you like you might take some time this weekend and review the information at Equity Alerts: e-analytics.com I use Big Charts for my charting. So go to the following URL and select 10 days, 1 hour intervals, bollinger bands, and RSI(relative strength): bigcharts.com In particular read the information on bollinger bands and relative strength. What the heck.. I'll copy and paste it for you: Relative Strength Index - RSI This is part of a larger Technical Analysis site provided by Equity Analytics, Ltd. RSI is a momentum indicator which measures an equity's price relative to itself. It is relative to its past performance. It is also front weighted. Therefore, it gives a better velocity reading than other indicators. RSI is less affected by sharp rises or drops in an equity's price performance. Thus, it filters out some of the 'noise' in a security's trading activity. An example of RSI can be seen on Chart #103 RSI's absolute levels are 0 and 100. Traditionally, buy signals are triggered at 30, and sell signals are triggered at 70. However, many analysts are now using 20 for buy signals and 80 for sell signals. I have found some interesting variations of these buy and sell levels. My analysis indicates that the buy and sell level will vary somewhat depending on the amount of days used in the calculation. A shorter span of days will result in a more volatile indicator which reaches further extremes. A longer amount of days used in the calculation results in a less volatile reading which reaches extremes far less often. I have also found that despite the fact that RSI is designed to be able to measure multiple equities against each other, it doesn't quite work out that way. Some securities may pull back some when their RSI indicator reaches about 68, others at 70, etc. Different securities seem to have slightly different levels at which the price changes direction. These levels are close to each other. But they seem to be particular to each equity. Basically, the vast majority do seem to change direction at 30 and 70. My point is that this is not a hard and fast rule. There are subtle differences. RSI treats price as a rubberband. The rubberband can be stretched just so far. After a certain point, unless it breaks, the rubberband is forced to contract. Keep in mind that trades are not placed on RSI alone. RSI is a momentum indicator which usually turns ahead of price. The important thing to remember is that price is the ultimate determinant. NOW onto bollinger bands! Bollinger Bands do not generate buy and sell signals alone. They should be used with another indicator. I prefer to use Bollinger Bands with RSI. This is because when price touches one of the bands, it could indicate one of two things. It could indicate a continuation of the trend; or it could indicate a reaction the other way. So Bollinger Bands used by themselves do not provide all of what technicians need to know. Which is when to buy and sell. MACD can be substituted for RSI. However, when combined with an indicator such as RSI, they become quite powerful. RSI is an excellent indicator with respect to overbought and oversold conditions. Generally, when price touches the upper Bollinger Band, and RSI is below 70, we have an indication that the trend will continue. Conversely, when price touches the lower Bollinger Band, and RSI is above 30, we have an indication that the trend should continue. If we run into a situation where price touches the upper Bollinger Band and RSI is above 70 (possibly approaching 80) we have an indication that the trend may reverse itself and move downward. On the other hand, if price touches the lower Bollinger Band and RSI is below 30 (possibly approaching 20) we have an indication that the trend may reverse itself and move upward. My short term target for ELN is 27. Longer term 35 is easily attainable if the company only lives up to today's announcement. Setting up a nice return to Sender!

To: Gary Korn who wrote (610)	11/7/1999 4:23:00 AM
From: Lance Bredvold	Respond to of 10345

That statement pleased my greatly and led me to review the many times this type of situation (feeling) has come up in my investing career. Sometimes I post on other boards that I'm buying just when everyone is yelling sell (or vice versa) and feel quite unpopular. Best to not say anything at all, I think. "The stock is way oversold given its prospects (unless there is some unknown news out there). I'm used to that though, and have learned to accumulate through it." And though I cannot claim to have thought about every occasion when I bought as the price deteriorated below my earlier purchases, I cannot think of any that I am not glad about now. The worst ones languished for a long time somewhere near my last purchase and a few are still in the down stage (e.g. Elan), but surprisingly enough (even to me) virtually every case worked in the end and some worked spectacularly. I bought some more today also, though I feel a little guilty over less than maximum understanding of the company. I always feel that my best chances of success are when I buy below the average price (and I use the 200 day as a proxy on occasion) and the lower it goes, the farther below the average I'm apt to be. It also puts me in the pleasant position of frequently being glad when my stocks go down in price or when the whole market tumbles. They say Warren Buffet was very cheery at the bottom in '74 and I can understand that very well. I have not posted for a few days and need to thank you for your response, William. At the rate I'm adding shares,this company is going to be one of my biggest holdings too. Lance.