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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (32471)	11/5/1999 6:29:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Bobby, i agree with you that quite a few tech stocks seem to be in a climactic buying panic stage...but how do you reliably pick a top in such a blow-off? imo, we would have to see a key reversal day, an island reversal or a similar convincing turnabout to be certain of a short term top. agree with you on the Dow fibo retracement...it was touched PRECISELY at today's intra-day high. utilities have turned back down from their 200-day ema...negative for two consecutive days now in spite of the big bond rally. and of course we never had a selling climax , not even once this year. very soon the cycles also turn down, and in the last two cycles the market turned ahead of the expected top (in this cycle it is 11/15). last but not least, i'm asking myself what the bond is actually discounting here...is it lower inflation, or is it a recession due to Y2K? that's just idle speculation at this point of course, but it is worth noting that lately there seems to be an outbreak of complacency with regards to Y2K, witness McTeer's remarks. we shouldn't forget that the global economy is highly interdependent and the state of preparation of the Fortune 500 is hardly a yardstick for what's happening elsewhere in the world. oh yes, blow-off touches trend line: decisionpoint.com FWIW, Prechter now expects a wave 3 downwave for the Dow and SPX... i remember the SPX count: July top to August low an impulse wave 1 down, and since then a complex wave 2 consolidation (some kind of flat) with the current rally being C of 2, the October low having marked the end of B of 2. of course i have also heard of other more bullish counts...in fact there are as many counts as e-wavers, as usual. the reason why i thought it worth mentioning the Prechter view is that i have belatedly found out that he has actually called every turn since the July top. btw, for those who think Prechter = always wrong, that's simply not true...he's caught the duration and extent of the Asian rallies this year to a T for instance...he was expecting the U.S. market to top out sooner though. btw, he thinks we either have already seen, or are near to, a generational, secular top. in view of how the stock market has begun to permeate every facet of American culture, he's probably on to something. regards, hb