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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (9653)	11/5/1999 7:48:00 PM
From: Rick	Respond to of 54805

"Since you're so good at keeping track of that stuff, it would be great if you would let us know when they upgrade Qualcomm. I'm willing to bet that the upgrades will be at higher prices than when they downgraded the stock. --Mike Buckley" A couple of months ago I was browsing through investment books, the exact titles of which escape me now, when I came across a point that I found especially interesting. It was one author's view that unanimity in analysts opinion is a contrarian indictor. That is, when all analysts say "buy this stock," it really means that all possible good news has already been built into its price. (In other words, everyone who is at all interested in buying the stock has been told repeatedly why it's really a very smart thing to buy, and therefore all potential buyers have already made up their minds.) The only change now possible is that some brave analyst says "don't buy," (when new bad news is released). On the other hand when there are no analysts who like a particular stock, the only thing that can happen is that someone changes his mind (when new good news is released). In the author's view, it was like a rocket: with all its engines going full bore the only changes possible were all bad, when all the engines are off the only changes possible are all good. (For example, think of AOL and Compaq.) If there is anything at all to this theory, the Mighty Q has a long, long way to go. Fred