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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: theRedDog who wrote (32487)	11/5/1999 8:20:00 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

theRedDog: Wow, the dust must be flying off your posting keyboard...<g> I do not believe we are seeing the beginning of a blow-off top, heck it started last Oct 98. What we have been seeing the last few days is one of the last gasps of the blow-off. We have seen new highs in the hi-tech laden NDX/COMPX , we have not seen new highs in the DOW Industrials, Transports, Utilities or the NYA in general. In most of the major Indices the downturn has not been negated yet. This bull is not going down with out a fight. A major top in the "real un-weighted" market was seen in April 98 per the VGY. I thought we had seen the top per my Overall Market Composite Index (Cap weighted in the manor of the NYA and COMPX), but felt it was possible we could still see marginal new highs per my OMC. And we have... I have been expecting the TYX to break down and out of its rising wedge and I think that break may have begun this week, however follow through is needed next week to confirm. As I have stated several times over the last year, I believe we will see bonds and equities decline in unison before the end of his year. It may be a staggered move as mentioned in some of my more recent post or a quick drop in unison or combinations of both. I still have not changed my overall expectation, that the ramp up off the Oct 98 lows began the process of putting in a top for the momentum acceleration off the 94 lows and maybe a topping to the bull run per my OMC since 74. Now I know many on this thread have made money on the upside over the past few days/weeks. There is no reason not to take advantage of the volatility, if one is nimble and one's broker can give timely fills. I think we have been seeing an exercise by the big boys the last few days to draw investors back into the Market. This is most likely the last time I am going to post this view as I have been building to this point all year and over the last couple of months have really dug in my heels. If I can find the time this weekend, I will post an analysis with my chart updates. There will continue to be opportunities on the upside, but the leaders will continue to narrow. As I noted in my Sept 15th Road Kill Update, there will be strong swings that throw bears into a bullish stance and have the bulls going wild...<g> Go for the money during these sharp rallies if your nimble enough, but keep an eye on the fire exit! I think many buy and hold investors have a hand in their pocket and don't know it yet...<gg> I suspect the Market is going to prove me right or wrong soon... Regards, LG Disclaimer: The above is my opinion only and I reserve the right to be wrong. An overall market expectation is just that and should not be used in exclusion of the evaluation of individual equities or other investment instruments. Do not base any investment decision solely on anyone person's views or analysis. Do your own research and take responsibility for your investment decisions.