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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: BigBull who wrote (54126)11/5/1999 7:28:00 PM
From: BigBull  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 95453
 
Hey Gary: Tech Death? You're a genius.

zdnet.com



To: BigBull who wrote (54126)11/5/1999 8:00:00 PM
From: JHalperin  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 95453
 
Big Bull and the Board: Bottom Line Topic-

I started to seriously invest in the overall oil and gas sector early this spring based on many companies selling near liquidation values which from a long-term perspective defied logic. I have watched the underlying commodity prices rise dramatically since and while the incredible rally (especially the drillers) this past summer was premature I am confounded by the extent of the sector wide retracement of the last 45 days.

I am challenging my assumptions for staying heavily invested (margin maxed out as of today!):

E&P stock prices do not reflect current and prospective earnings.

Driller and service company stock prices do not reflect prospective earnings.

Commodity prices will remain at least at current prices thru next year primarily because of increasing world demand.

OPEC continues to be adequately successful in not letting the "floodgates open."

CAPEX from the majors will significantly increase by mid 2000.

I think the main reason for this retracement is rotation back into the techs as evidenced by NASDAQ's recent rally. How can this sector be dumped at this point in time in spite of such seemingly overwhelming value and prospects?

I am a long-term value investor and I get my info from many sources.
I certainly don't have the experience in this sector as many of you do and sincerely ask for a reality check on my assumptions.

BTW - this is a great forum!

Thanx,

Joel Halperin



To: BigBull who wrote (54126)11/5/1999 11:18:00 PM
From: Crimson Ghost  Respond to of 95453
 
Big Bull:

No I am not selling my OS fund. But it does look like the path back to OSX 140 will take longer than many of us had hoped.

Unless 2000 capex estimates are soon revised towards 15% again, I doubt OSX will be able to move above the 76-78 area this year. OSX 90 may not be in the cards until February-March.