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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (32499)	11/5/1999 7:48:00 PM
From: Benkea	Respond to of 99985

Will $4 or more points coming off the stock that makes up 12.5% of the NDX and therefore 10% of the Nasdaq have an affect on Monday? It sure should.

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (32499)	11/5/1999 7:53:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Ramsey, MSFT is easily THE most important tech stock...it's actually THE most important stock, period. if it were to go to a 10x sales valuation as you suggest (i.e. stripped of it's monopoly premium), it could possibly trigger a major sell-off in the market overall. this is mainly a sentiment issue, as MSFT has the aura of utter invincibility, and if such a widely held and revered giant get's booted from investment heaven, then who can be considered safe? MSFT's weighting alone means it could considerably dent the NAZ,NDX, SPX and OEX. it's even in the formerly dowdy Dow now (but doesn't carry as much weight there). the market is about liquidity (ample) and sentiment (fickle). if MSFT should indeed fall from grace, that would be very negative, no doubt about it. regards, hb

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (32499)	11/5/1999 8:02:00 PM
From: Trumptown	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

"Anyone care to discuss what may become of all these indexes in the immediate future, assuming MSFT does tumbled back down to earth?" - Does anyone remember when ATT was broken up? Similar situation...what impact did that have on the market? When was that...? Late '80's SR

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (32499)	11/5/1999 8:55:00 PM
From: theRedDog	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 99985

>>>>>> Second, without the monopoly, Windows should be at most a $50 retail product, especially the upgrades which should be a $10 product. How MSFT can maintain the $20 billion rev would indeed require some of what Bill Gates claims all along - innovation. Unfortunately, MSFT has never been know for innovation. <<<<<< Agreed 100% to all. Let me tell you first a bit of history before trying to answer your question: (dates are approximate) - circa 1980: MS leverages deal with IBM to become the dominant OS provider with DOS. - circa 1985: Macintosh becomes the first real threat to DOS. MS states that "Icons are for sissies" while they work double shift to come out with an alternative. - circa 1989: Windows 3.0 (first viable Windows version) becomes popular. Gates "sees the light" and Windows are now cool. - circa 1992: MS uses its leverage to drive out of business many Utilities developers. Those utilities are copied, and added to Windows for free. - circa 1994: MS again uses its command of Windows to integrate several major applications into Office, eventually driving out of business several major applications developers. - circa 1995: Unix, Internet, and Browsers start being a threat to Windows. Gates proclaims that "Internet will never happen" while working double shift on an alternative. - circa 1996: MS makes a non-exclusive licensing agreement with Spyglass. (makers of a second rate browser) Then they rename it Explorer and offer it for free, scr**ing Spyglass (the deal called for a % of royalties) and hurting Netscape. - circa 1997: A much improved Explorer 3.0 comes out, and eventually, puts Netscape out of business. MS suddenly shifts to an Internet-centric policy. 1998: MS releases virtual InterDev, and unfolds ASP, working together with Windows NT servers. 1999: ASP, COM, and Windows NT are finally a viable (and arguably better) alternative to Unix servers and cgi-bin scripts. What is going to happen now? IMHO nothing much. MS is going to fight the DOJ for a while, and then settle in favorable terms (there's no way the DOJ is going to destroy MS) AAPL, SUNW, AOL, INPR, Red Hat (Unix), etc. will go up Monday. (As will many future potential victims of MSFT) Eventually (months or years from now) Windows might become free/very cheap (or open platform like Unix) but by that time MS will get most of its revenue from dominating Internet transactions with ASP and COM. Will MSFT drive the QQQ down Monday? I think so, but nothing earth shattering, as it will be compensated by gains in other tech stocks. Also: this Administration knows that the on-going bull market is the best "achievement" they have to show. They won't risk upsetting it in the name of justice. But what do I know? theRedDog PS: (I'm surprised how well the judge findings correlate with the insider knowledge I have. I believe he got an excellent grasp of the facts) I have been in the software industry for over a decade, and I have seen MS push its weight around many times hurting many people in the process with less than ethic antics. History eventually will give Gates a place together with Morgan, Rockefeller, an the like. On the other hand, MS is in a position in which it cannot really be hurt. Any compromise they reach with the DOJ will eventually benefit the company. Intersting times, indeed!