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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: D. Swiss who wrote (146645)	11/5/1999 9:41:00 PM
From: J. D. Main	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Pilgrims.....This is kind of interesting------> Dell Computer Streak Atop the S&P 500 Index Coming to an End Round Rock, Texas, Nov. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Dell Computer Corp.'s three-year run as the best-performing stock on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index is coming to an end. Dell, the world's biggest direct-seller of personal computers, is about to turn in its worst stock performance in six years. Its shares have risen 16 percent in 1999, after more than tripling in each of the last three years. By comparison, Qualcomm Inc., the current S&P 500 leader, has surged more than 1000 percent this year. ''This isn't Dell's finest year,'' said Tim Ghriskey, a portfolio manager for Dreyfus Corp., which owns about 3.8 million Dell shares. ''They will not be the strong performer this year that they were in the past.'' Dell hasn't had this poor a showing since 1993, when its shares fell 53 percent. Even in 1995, its weakest year since then, the stock rose 69 percent. Dell fell 3/16 to 42 3/8 in recent trading. For much of this year, the Round Rock, Texas-based company has struggled with slowing sales growth. In 1997 and 1998, Dell's revenue increased more than 50 percent each quarter. Beginning in the fiscal fourth quarter that ended in January 1999, sales growth dipped to between 39 percent and 42 percent. What's more, investors, known for their devotion, fretted about falling prices for PCs and rising costs for computer parts. Investors Lose Those concerns created something Dell has rarely seen this decade: people who lost money on its stock. The shares reached a high of 55 on Feb. 1, then plunged, falling 40 percent by June 1. Dell rebounded, though it began to slide again in September amid concerns about rising memory-chip prices, a shortage of flat- panel screens for laptops and possible supply disruptions from an earthquake in Taiwan. In mid-October, Chairman Michael Dell warned investors that higher memory-chip prices will crimp fiscal third-quarter earnings, which Dell will release Thursday afternoon. Prices for a 64-megabit dynamic random-access memory chip, the industry standard, rose fourfold from July through Oct. 1. Dell responded by putting fewer memory chips in its PCs, although its warning prompted analysts to cut third-quarter earnings estimates to an average of 18 cents from 20 cents, according to First Call Corp. Some numbers published on the Internet still are as high as 21 cents. A year earlier, net income was 14 cents. Ashok Kumar, an analyst with US Bancorp Piper Jaffray, predicts Dell's sales for the quarter will rise 45 percent, consistent with the company's pace of less than 50 percent sales growth this year. Besting Compaq Even so, Dell, which sells its machines directly to its customers, is outperforming rivals that sell through distributors and retailers, such as Compaq Computer Corp. Compaq, the world's biggest personal computer maker, is among the S&P 500's worst performers this year. Shares of the Houston-based company have dropped 51 percent. Third-quarter profit from operations was little changed and sales rose just 4.7 percent. ''We expect Dell to continue to gain market share at the expense of Compaq,'' said Kumar, who rates Dell a ''buy.'' Ghriskey said he has no plans to sell Dell because he believes its distribution system is the best in the industry. While the company's growth may have slowed and the stock is no longer the hottest, it remains a solid investment, he said. ''As you get bigger and bigger, it's tough to maintain that kind of growth,'' he said. ''Nothing goes up like that forever.'' Nov/05/1999 12:23 J.D.

To: D. Swiss who wrote (146645)	11/5/1999 9:59:00 PM
From: Moose	Respond to of 176387

DELL IS A BARGAIN I agree... The bull in me believes what I see on Yahoo Finance and DELL will grow by about 40% next year. I usually assign a P/E of Growth+10 to a stock based on how fast I would start making money if I bought the entire company. Give this, I give DELL a forward looking P/E of 50 (40% growth + 10). If DELL hits this quarter's target and next, then we'll earn .74/year. The 40% growth rate gives them 1.03 next year. P/E*E = ~$51.00/share. We closed at 40 3/4... I'm sure there's an easy $10 to be made on this stock. A couple other conclusions... 1) INTC remains bullish about making a record quarter. 2) MSFT ruling is great for the industry... and I believe DELL directly since the box makers will no doubt do the "bundling" of features. We should easily see $50 by the end of the year... I'm holding 'till at least March! Moose