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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (32558)	11/6/1999 12:09:00 AM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

OoooooH MY GAWD, Heinz do your remember when i fell out of my chair when Richard Russell said "you gotta be bullish here" going into the July 4th weekend. Well i just had a similar religious experience -gg- Chucklereyser just gave perma-bear Gale Dudak the boot from the Elves list!!!!!!!!! No more bears. I should have gone 10,000% short -ggg- TA rules! I've been enjoying red dogs posts on softie and I am reminded of billy boy saying "in the best interests of the customer" tonight on tv. bull pucky, the only interests billy boy is concerned with is keeping the cash cow in the barn. The break up of AT&T may have dredged up a lot of muck but i doubt the internet would be at this stage that it is with a monopolistic AT&T in control of the system (or many of the other telco innovations we take for granted today) same thing goes with softie, fair competition is at the core of free democracy and capitalism, softie has crushed way more innovation and "customer" utility than it has created. bb

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (32558)	11/6/1999 11:18:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Heinz, With all this eurphoria, it is very hard to call a top in the NAZ, but heres just a simple perspective. To view the extent of this runup, many make the mistake of using the old highs as the starting point. I feel the more proper starting point is the actually beginning of this runnup which was at 2632 on the NAZ. Using the conversion factor of 3.45:1 to compare the DOW to the NAZ, this runup in the NAZ of 486 points off of the OCT lows is equivalent to 1677 DOW points. And thats using a conservative conversion factor. Some are still using 4-5 which would even illustrate a greater extreme. How much higher can this specific rocket continue for the short-term, Im not sure, but I do think the short-term top is near in light of all the GAPS and just the simple size of this move. If I had to guess, and to give myself a buffer, I would guess within 100 NAZ points. Besides the simple size of this move we should analyze the speed of it. For a simple comparision, the strong runup in APRIL for the DOW was around 1200 l points and it took 30 trading days. This move in the DOW that is equivalent to a 1700-2000+ DOW point move, so far has lasted only 14 days. It is fair to say that this move upwards is even more intense than the DOW's surge in APRIL. By the way the DOW did return all the way back to its starting point of this runup which was around 10,000. I can hear it now, where some will will say that its different with the NAZ since it represents the future. Since it is so hard to call the top on parabolic moves, at least lets talk about some clues that may hint of a short-term top. It is common with parabolic moves that the first strong down day (BLACK CANDLE) is a good clue. Another possibility is a series of SPINNING TOPs/DOJIs at the same/near levels in price - like a TRISTAR. Next WED we have the PPI report and depending on how well they put a positive spin on it that could spur another move up. As for MSFT, the negative could be positives for other HiTech stocks like SUNW/AOL for a short period, but if/after a spurt upwards it would be incorporated in the price, so its more of a short-term effect. Heinz, again I have to mention the lack of strength and followthru in the DOW and the SPX, and weakness in the TRAN and UTY as issues not supporting this rally in the HiTECHs. seeya The timing is not right for a huge selloff in the sense of a crash, but I do feel that the pullback should be at least 1/2 of the the parabolic move. To be conservative I wont use 2632 but use 2800 where a small base formed. That would put a pullback to the 2950 range.