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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (29592)	11/6/1999 3:32:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Respond to of 50167

Novell's stock has been under so much pressure lately, you?d think shareholders would be ready to cry ?Uncle.? In late July, the stock was trading above $30, but in the past two weeks, the stock slumped as low as $16.69. Many investors were of the opinion that Novell (NASDAQ: NOVL - Quotes, News, Boards) chief executive Eric Schmidt was merely failing to keep investors informed about the company?s strategy and pending product releases. In reality that was only part of the problem. Like this Article? Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT - Quotes, News, Boards) (Remember them?) was due to release Windows 2000, an improved version of its Windows NT corporate network software and a direct competitor to Novell?s flagship product, NetWare. Year 2000 concerns didn?t help Novell either. But, with the recent announcement from Microsoft that Windows 2000 won?t be out until February, Novell?s stock suddenly looks better. Preferred Capital Markets analyst Joel Achramowicz said, 'The Microsoft delay was one reason for the jump in the share price. The second reason was that, frankly, at the $17 level the stock is way too cheap.' Novell's stock was also helped by the broad market rebound last week, but Achramowicz also pointed to Friday?s initial public offering of Akamai Technologies (NASDAQ: AKAM - Quotes, News, Boards), which provides Internet services that protect Web sites from crashing due to demand overloads, and speeds up web page delivery. The offering price was $26, but by Friday?s close the stock soared to $145.19. The thought is that Akamai, while not a direct competitor to Novell, provides a similar type of software in that both companies attempt to control the amount and time that information will flow over a network. This excitement has spilled over, in our opinion, into the trading of Novell shares, sending the stock up Friday $0.25 to $20.06. In short, we are still bullish on Novell, but the company has suffered due to a lack of new information about new investments, products and services. As management begins to talk about the story in greater detail and turns in earnings that are consistent with Street estimates, this stock should trade higher. Achramowicz is calling for the company to earn $0.17 per share on $340 million in revenue for the fourth quarter ending October. One small vote of confidence came from chief financial officer Dennis Raney, who bought 2,000 shares in the open market during September at $22.63 per share. News of the purchase comes at a time when investors are looking for some reassurance that the momentum at Novell is not gone. To that end the purchase served its purpose. Stay tuned for more. Analyst: Glenn S. Curtis Updated on 10/29/99 with NOVL trading at $20.06 Recommended 11/16/98 at $14.38

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (29592)	11/6/1999 3:47:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 50167

This is A LINK TO 'McClellan Oscillator' decisionpoint.com open it in different window and read this article going back and forth to the decision point... Now go through this excellent article and apply it on the chart above and you will find what is the future of this market based on..'McClellan Oscillator' fwiw.. . 'Recently I came across this term 'McClellan Oscillator.' What is it? How is it derived? And any other information you can give me on this bird would be appreciated.' -- Peter A. Okay, gang, hang in throughout this long answer -- it's worth it. You'll be a smarter investor if you make it to the end: The McClellan Oscillator, developed in 1969 by Sherman and Marian McClellan, is a technical indicator used to gauge when to enter and exit the stock market. The indicator is based on the number of stocks that closed higher and those that closed lower on a trading day, known as daily breadth. A running cumulative total of daily breadth is the daily advance-decline line. To identify trends in daily breadth, it's necessary to use a moving average. The McClellan uses a measure called exponential moving average (EMA) which weights the most recent data more heavily than older data. The amount of weighting assigned to the more recent data is known as a smoothing constant. Like this Article? There are two main ways to interpret the indicator: First, a positive reading generally means money is coming into the market, while a negative reading indicates money is leaving the market. Second, when the oscillator reaches extreme readings, it can signal an overbought or oversold condition. Overbought conditions indicate a market that may be ready to drop back in the near-term. Oversold conditions, the opposite. In numerical terms, a reading above zero suggests that the market is positive, while a reading below zero indicates negative sentiment. As the reading moves above +100, it indicates an overbought condition, whereas below -100 represents an oversold condition. A more long-term application of the McClellan Oscillator is known as the Summation Index. This measure generally moves between 0 and +2,000. When the Index moves outside these levels an unusual condition is occurring. The most significant use of the Summation Index is to identify the end of a bear market and the confirmation of a new bull market. Bear markets typically end with The Summation Index below -1,200. A strong rise from such a level can signal the beginning of a new bull market, confirmed when the index rises above +2,000. Historically such a confirmation has resulted in bull markets lasting at least 13 months with the average ones lasting 22-24 months. I know this is a lot to take in. If you have follow-up questions, send them into Investor U.(TM). I'll be glad to take a crack at them. Chris Bulkey Senior Analyst