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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BGR who wrote (73994)	11/6/1999 10:58:00 AM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 86076

BooGeR: why i even bother responding is beyond me but i will one LAST time: we are in a mania. a mania supported by a few large cap stocks. MSFT being one of those and one of the largest. I stopped discussing fundamentals on this thread months ago, because they don't matter. the mania is full blown and nothing matters. The only thing that is going to help us know the end is near are technical indicators and psychology. Fundamental worries like falling profits, rising interest rates, rising wages, rising commodities, rising margin debt, etc (when i say "etc" that menas i am not listing everything for the sake of time and typing... you appeared not to understand this in my last post so I'll spell it out for you since you appear somewhat slow). The MSFT decision is important becuase it can potentiall turn psychology. MSFT is also the largest if the inde carriers. Weakness in the stock can bring the whole mania down due to its large market cap, heavy inde weighting and general high profile. A breakup for MSFT and the accompanying fines if so, would be VERY negative for MSFT's stock as well as any baby MSFT's. MSFT's strength is its monopoly. That's where its enomromus profitablility and consistent earnings come from. Now, OEMs currently install MSFT operating systme onto computers becuase it is virtually the only system available and the only one well known. There is no choice for the public. REAL competition (which doesn't include Linux) would result form a breakup of MSFT (depending on how that breakup was structured of ocurse... again, i throw this in so your small mind can fully grasp what i am talking about. I feel i must almost write with the care preciseness a contract when posting to you becuase what normal intelligent individuals would know as "understood" you go nuts over as being "overlooked"). COmpetition would allow consumers to select theiur operating system just as they select laptop or box now, or the color of their car, whteher that is done at the OEM or over the net once they get home; it doesn't matter. The point is that MSFT's Win system would not be a given. Again, there would be advertising costs going forward as competing operating systems would be forced to tell the public how their system was better and why it shpould be selected when a PC was bought. Just as DELL, GTW, IBM, etc compete today in the advertising arena for boxes and laptops. Again, i am looking FORWARD with these thoughts which is what matter to the mkt, not yesterday or today. Whenver one does so there is risk of error due to a variable being chnaged. For example, if MSFT settles w/ DOJ, then things could be different. If the breakup of MSFT is between, explorer, Win, and "other" the situation would be different. We don't know at this point. Al we can do is speculate. The point of all this is that A: the anti-trust ruling against MSFT on Fri is a big step towards a VERY negative outcome for MSFT stock. B: MSFT stock has a huge weighting in the indexes. significant weakness in it can bring the whole mkt down. For example: 60 to 70% of stocks have been going down for the last 2 yrs, yet the indexes continued to go to new highs becuase a few large cap NYSE stocks and tech kept them afloat. They reverse is true as well; the others can recover, but weakness in the big boys can drop the whole party. Before you waltz onto this thread and accuse others of simply throwing up charts and erroneous analysis, i suggest you go back and read the Myth thread starting for around a year ago. This might help you to understand why many joke on this thread and put things up like "BUy POS, it never falls, etc." These things are done in jest. Few even bother w/ analysis anymore, myself included, because it hasn't mattered. Case in point is the last 12 months. Bill Fleckenstein for example is one of the best at fiundamental analysis of companies, yet for the last 12 months, none of that has mattered because the mania was full blown and nobody cared what was really going on out in the real world all they cared about was money flow and little squiggles on the charts. What you call "fundamentals" (and i've read a few of your posts LOL!) have NOTHING to do w/ the current mania. The current mania has gone beyond anything before whne underlying decay in the economical fundamentals are observed. You point to a blowout qtr form XYZ co and say "see, its justified" w/out beothering to look at the underlying accounting games going one and the ponzi effect of everything feeding off of continued profitable specualtion in stocks. As BArton Biggs has said: "The US economy is not a perpetual motion machine." This is the last time i go to the trouble of responding to your ilk.