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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jill who wrote (32345)	11/6/1999 6:26:00 PM
From: RTev	Respond to of 74651

It's a bad position to be in. We have all been saying the trial has been priced in and everybody's been bored with the trial, and I believed that too but I think Monday won't be so pretty. I agree. But I think that dip will be short term. It will climb out of the cellar it paints next week. Eventually the mass of the market will conclude that almost anything that happens to Microsoft as a result of this case is likely to be neutral or positive for the company's shareholders (even if some results might be negative to the egos of Gates, Ballmer, et al.). The biggest danger from a share-price perspective is that Microsoft and the DOJ will drag this thing out to a bitter and ineffectual end, depressing the stock occasionally as the case comes back into focus, or letting it run briefly when Microsoft gets something that could be considered good news. Unfortunately, that also the most likely scenario. I'd love to see a creative settlement to this whole affair, but, after listening to the Microsoft execs speak yesterday from Redmond, I don't expect it to happen. They sounded a bit like a fighter down for a three-count (somehow, I'm overcome by sports metaphors today) who looks up at his opponent and asks, "Ready to throw in the towel?" Maybe things will change after they've had time to more carefully consider their current condition and position. And, by the way, I'm not ready to say that Microsoft will win this on appeal. Jackson seems to be constructing this thing carefully, even though one can already see appealable weaknesses. But the lazy stupid Reagan judge seems to be wiser and smarter than some have allowed. There's also the problem of the serendipity of the circuit panel. Microsoft has been extraordinarily lucky so far, getting three-judge panels comprising some of the court's least activist voices. Luck has always smiled on Microsoft, but it's dangerous to count on it. Next time, they could end up with one or two of the more antitrust-activist judges from that circuit.