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Technology Stocks : Gemstar Intl (GMST) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lucrative who wrote (735)	11/6/1999 10:00:00 PM
From: Uncle Frank	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6516

You have a different sense of Gemstar than I do. It will be interesting to see which premise the market adopts. Just out of curiosity, would you mind listing the symbol for the put contracts you purchased so we can track your return against those of us who are bullish at 85 9/16? Frank

To: Lucrative who wrote (735)	11/7/1999 6:00:00 AM
From: unclewest	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6516

I see an overextended stock price, a broadening formation, wide and loose pattern, and underlying, heavy distribution that began in early October. yeup! i think you are on to something. let me suggest a book to you. introduction to technical analysis by martin pring about $75 with cd's. since i got most on my shares at 68 in early october (the 5th i recollect). i see a stock that is up 30% in 30 days. i am quite grateful for the distribution pattern. you see some of it was distributed to me. of course you read it one way and went short based on your ta method. i used lots of dd and went long. lucrative, this may be the greatest homerun opportunity of your life, but you will have to switch from left-handed to right-handed to hit it. uncle frank compared gmst to qcom. look at the similarities in qcom's chart earlier this year and gmst's now. qcom has gone from the 20s to 300. quote.yahoo.com uw

To: Lucrative who wrote (735)	11/8/1999 4:52:00 PM
From: Seeker of Truth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6516

Galileo was chained, Darwin was attacked, Newton was ignored but somehow science was born. The essence of science is not to believe anything without proof. A proof of the value of technical analysis would be like this. We get out a chart of values progressing in time. We cover up the later half, just showing the first half and ask the "technical analyst" to predict. This experiment has been done many times with large samples and the bottom line is that TA has no predictive value. Then why is it so popular? People don't understand statistics. "Uncle Louis smoked and lived to 91 so I can smoke also. I'll be fine." "Analyst A is no good but look at technical analyst B's prediction of HoT Rod Inc. He said the chart was very favorable and sure enough it tripled!!!" Anecdotes swamp the science. Wishful thinking obliterates objectivity. Many Ph.D. theses in economics have been written which presented data that rule out TA as a useful predictive tool. But TA gurus will make a living as long as people love their dreams more than they love science. I don't know whether GMST is a buy or a sell here but you certainly can't prove that by TA. I usually say JMHO, but not this time.