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Non-Tech : Auric Goldfinger's Short List -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Anthony@Pacific who wrote (4041)	11/7/1999 11:18:00 AM
From: DanZ	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19428

Anthony, If you look back at Gunn Allen's trading activity in GUMM, you will find that they have been the heaviest trader of the stock for a couple of years. The data from last month is no different and one can't automatically regard it as a "box job". Most Gunn Allen clients are long term investors by their nature. It is part of the corporate culture of the firm, and for the most part they only attract investors. I saw GNLN selling some stock on the first rally from 15 to 19, but they were buying stock between 15 and 17 after the correction. The way I see it, Mr. Goldfinger, and perhaps you, are simply trying to scare investors into thinking that Gunn Allen has given up on GumTech. This is a blatant lie. If you want to have an honest discussion about the company, then fine...let's have it. I have no respect for anybody who thinks that they are bigger than a stock, or who is trying to manipulate a stock by spreading false rumors. If you must know, most of Gunn Allen's selling came from their Chicago office, and the folks in Florida didn't understand why, and disagreed with, their selling. The explanation is that some of them bought the stock below $5 and were simply trying to trade on what they thought was a short term spike. Given Gunn Allen's bullish long term opinion on GumTech, it is very likely that many of those investors will buy the stock back. In fact, some of them might have been buying on Friday since Gunn Allen was on the bid early in the day. A friend of mine, a Gunn Allen client, bought several thousand shares of GUMM on Friday. They have not given up on the company and I don't think that the principals at Gunn Allen would appreciate anyone spreading a false rumor regarding this. Fundamentals move stocks in the long term. In the short term, short sellers might be able to make a few quarters or halves or points by trading the volatility. However, if you take a rational look at the future fundamentals, I think you will find that the longer you hold a short position in this company, the more likely you are to lose money. This is a very dangerous overnight short, because like we saw with the release of news on the first clinical study that was the catalyst for the break out, more news is very likely coming that could have an even bigger impact. Specifically, the company will soon announce the results of the independent clinical studies on prevention of the common cold and reduction of the duration and severity of cold symptoms. Positive news regarding the joint venture for nicotine gum could also cause the stock to rally more than what we saw the other day. I'll say it again, the risk to reward of holding an overnight short position in GUMM is atrocious. If he clinical study for prevention, in particular, comes back positive, I won't even venture to guess how high the stock will trade in one or two days. The resulting hype from that kind of an event could send many short sellers home with negative equity in their accounts, and that's no joke. I wish no ill will on anybody, but I just can't understand any rational person taking that kind of risk. Perhaps the time to short GUMM would be in a few months if revenues from Zicam indicate that consumers aren't repeat customers. If the product works for the majority of people, then they will be repeat customers and word of mouth will result in more sales. This would show up in increasing revenues, and if that occurs, the stock will trade much higher than 17. If the revenue data from Q1 00 or Q2 00 indicates that Zicam revenues aren't growing, then a short position is a much better bet at that time. Regards, Dan