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To: BGR who wrote (74105)	11/7/1999 6:59:00 PM
From: Siddhartha Gautama	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

Leaving Microsoft aside, the largest software company is Oracle with a market cap of 80 billion dollars. Four "Baby Bills" will be of comparable size - some smaller and some same size, but none larger. That should give it a market cap of 484 = 336 billion dollars which is a 30% haircut on its present market cap of 470 billion dollars. Alternatively, you can look at the business units of Microsoft, viz: 1. Microsoft Windows four times bigger than Novell 2. Microsoft Office two times bigger than Corel 3. Microsoft Tools two times bigger than Symantec 4. Microsoft Backoffice less than half the size of Oracle 5. Microsoft Internet Sites less than one fourth the size of AOL 6. Microsoft Miscellanea about the size of Sony Based on these very crude estimates Microsoft market cap should be around 47 + 2 * 0.5 + 2 * 3 + 0.5 * 84 + 0.25 * 163 + 66 = 184 billion dollars. Actually, the valuation for Corel should be multiplied by 10 or so to get a valuation in a no-monopoly situation. This would change the second value in the summation to 2 * 0.5 * 10 = 10 billion adding 9 more billions to 184 resulting in 193 billion dollars. Now, this would imply a greater than 50% haircut, wouldn't it? Or am I dreaming? :)

To: BGR who wrote (74105)	11/7/1999 10:16:00 PM
From: Ken98	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

BGR, everyone is getting all lathered up about a break-up of Soft like its a great thing and tossing about the phrase "baby bills". That phrase sounds real cute but minimizes several serious issues: 1. It ignores the HUGE monetary liability Soft now faces. I expect to see dollar figures not too far from the tobbaco settlements. 2. What if Soft is not broken up? 3. What if the judge orders reconfiguration of the next version of Windows? Limits its retail cost? 4. While the self-aggrandizing Gates appeals this case for years, what effect will the endless depositions and court appearances (in this case and the many new ones I expect to be filed shortly) have on senior executives and software engineers? On the ability to hire talented new engineers? 5. What effect will this have on the business goodwill of Soft (to the extent that any exists)? After reading the opinion I intend to switch from every Soft product I can (even if it means buying an apple or linux). Regards, Ken.