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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LABMAN who wrote (29606)	11/8/1999 2:53:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Respond to of 50167

WE are at 1362 support on Globex good 20 points down, the nice good jokers of SI are singing and dancing on their tails, everyone who claimed to have covered the shorts on gap openings last week pre ECI is now discovering that they are all short post Friday judgement. Good for them, contrary to their posts they seem to be long when market moves up and are short at most appropriate time when markets go down. However, like always a single stock or index can hit the market with some damage but does not have the capacity to take down the market. Look at the entire sectors like internets we came to test lows of 450 on DOT but SPZ held on very well, by the way when we were testing lows of DOT we were in dire situation vis a vis banking too. From highs of 142 IBM is languishing at 89-90 level but the market makes new highs on back of a bad performance of a market leader. I can bring several examples where market leaders have slowly lost leadership one MO was hot not in a very distant past. However we cannot discount MSFT as a stock it is the leading stock and sits at the cutting edge of technology. It is still not fully known that what impact the MSFT will have on innovation and cross synergies if MSFT is forced to be divided under rules of monopoly trading. I expect MSFT to trade slowly down at multiple of 40-50 P/E based on its year 2000 earnings, that easily justifies a lower level band between 70 and 85. The question is can IBM MSFT sell out of the leaders ignored by NDX? or will it translate into test of 2700 and break of it to go back to 2500 support , in my opinion MSFT at 70-82 $ will wipe out nearly 20-30% of its market cap at worst (of-course if PPI on Wednesday does not add to new worries on macro economic front) on NDX we have lately seen movement in stocks unrelated to MSFT, as I have pointed out earlier that in this rally MSFT has not done much and has been held back quite a bit in comparison to SUNW, the case is going to take to long, so initial sell of a bounce and than a test of key support is in perfect order. NDX is tech-laden index, as such leaders of leading stocks getting hurt will ultimately hit the index. But my supports are clear if we hold 2700 on NDX or 1350 area I would think that selling and panic would subside rather we may see a bounce off the lows as I strongly suspect, 1362 and 1350 are key levels. I expect them to hold, as James have highlighted that internets may not really need MSFT operating systems as such we may see competitors of MSFT who will gain from MSFT fall from grace filing n for a fallen idol.. Keep a watch for 2700 support and SOX 530.. or DOT 745 or PSE 655 in my opinion if these supports hold we will digest this dose pretty well otherwise we will fill the gaps during the course of a week on SPZ and bounce up strongly .. at 1350... between 1320-1328 are prominent areas but wait and see the action would be nice today/..