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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Duane L. Olson who wrote (32833)	11/7/1999 10:27:00 PM
From: Jill	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

Here's an excerpt from another piece tonight on Yahoo news ticker (by the way...the thread has not added much of genuine value today! Hope it's better tomorrow before the open) "The findings probably aren't going to have that much of an immediate impact on the stock," said Jeff Maxick, an analyst at Madison Securities. "It's just a confirmation of what most people already knew. When it gets to the next stage, if that includes a settlement or some type of penalty, that's when it will really affect the stock." Microsoft investors knew this day would eventually come. With a market capitalization of more than $470 billion, it's safe to say most investors aren't terribly concerned about the findings. It helps that Microsoft is a cash cow. Many analysts said Friday's ruling was already priced into Microsoft's current share price. The situation is similar to when Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan hints interest rates are going up and the markets respond accordingly. When the uncertainty is lifted the markets -- and possibly Microsoft -- rally. "I think to a large degree here the government has pulled a Greenspan by allowing the market to factor the ruling in," said Andrew Roskill, an analyst at Warburg Dillon Read, noting that the market has been warned for weeks the decision was coming. "In some instances chart) we've seen the stock move down ahead of this." Knee-jerk reaction from retail investors? But the market could continue to punish Microsoft shares in what would be a "knee jerk reaction," said Roskill. "I can see the headlines now," he said. "We could see a negative reaction based on the media reports. Microsoft is widely held with a lot of retail investors. Monday could be a knee jerk reaction, but it won't be anything significant." Roskill said it's much too early to bail out on Microsoft over the case. He noted there will be appeals coming and that process could take years. "By then it'll all be moot anyway," said Roskill. Roskill added that it was a forgone conclusion that the government would find Microsoft guilty of being a monopoly, but that's no crime. The analyst said Microsoft is competitive, but the government has to prove Redmond hurt consumers. Although the ruling, called a "finding of fact," was not a verdict, some pundits are already hailing the decision as a precursor to any number of remedies including the possible breakup of the software giant. "Microsoft enjoys so much power in the market for Intel-compatible PC operating systems that if it wished to exercise this power solely in terms of price, it could charge a price for Windows substantially above that which could be charged in a competitive market," Jackson wrote in his decision. (See ZDNN Special Report) "Moreover, it could do so for a significant period of time without losing an unacceptable amount of business to competitors," he added. "In other words, Microsoft enjoys monopoly power in the relevant market." Ahead of the decision, Microsoft shares closed off 3/16 to 91 9/16. Its shares slipped to as low as 87 a share in after-market trading. "The ruling was more negative for Microsoft than I would have expected," Epifanio said. "I was surprised that the judge went so far as to say Microsoft stifled innovation. ... It'll be interesting to see the reaction from the market on Monday." May the rhetoric begin DOJ officials said Jackson's harsh words signal a clear victory in perhaps the most significant antitrust case in history. "Microsoft is a monopolist," said Joel Klein, a DOJ attorney. "This is an important victory for American consumers and American companies." On the surface, Jackson's decision would appear to be a devastating blow to Microsoft and its shareholders. 'I'm not going to speculate on the market one way or the other.' -- Bill Gates But it's important to realize Friday's findings did not contain any suggestions to remedy the situation or to penalize Microsoft. Undoubtedly, a flurry of appeals will ensue before the penalty phase begins in the spring. Until then, investors will have to sort determine the significance of the findings for themselves. Will Microsoft buckle? The more long-term concern for shareholders could be whether Microsoft grows soft after the case. Roskill said there is evidence Microsoft has changed its habits. He said Microsoft has refrained from big acquisitions and said the company may have held back on its MSN pricing because of the case. "It's clear Microsoft needs to build out MSN to get critical mass," he said. "Instead of cutting rates it raised prices. Would Microsoft have done that without this trial? I don't know." Of course, Microsoft hasn't been exactly passive. It's Expedia web site goes public next week. And shortly after the decision was announced, Microsoft circled its wagons. Company officials said it disagrees with many of the judicial findings in its government antitrust lawsuit and will continue to vigorously fight the case, a spokesman for the software giant said Friday. "We will continue to vigorously contest the issues of this case in court, but at the same time we will continue to look for ways to resolve these issues in a fair and responsible manner," spokesman Jim Cullinan told Reuters.

To: Duane L. Olson who wrote (32833)	11/7/1999 10:32:00 PM
From: cruncher	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

This has been expected if you look at the stock price. bigcharts.com With the type of growth this stock has had in the last 10 months for it to be basically unchanged means in may opinion that this was expected. Tomorrow should be interesting. cruncher