I have chosen to adopt an aigcentric position on RTIN. While I hope I am wrong, I have come to the inescapable conclusion that those holding shares above $2, and maybe even $1.50, will have trouble recouping their investment if the deal IS CLOSED. No grammar or typos there. Let me aigsplain for you, using Aignostotilian logic.
At this point, so many longs are aigsasperated with the buffoonery that has aigcompanied this stock that the big AIGXIT sign is all they can see. (I have aigspoused this theory for some time) The selling into the positive news will approach Biblical proportions. In a sick and aigonizing way, consummation of the deal NOW could be but a Pyrrhic victory. This would be similar to situations where stocks run up,in anticipation of a buyout, and then it is announced that the buyout rumor was correct, but the price was a good bit below many shareholders' entry price.
It is further apparent that the notion of big buyers waiting for consummation has been greatly aigsaggerated. If they are indeed big buyers, then they are close to the transaction and, since the official public comment is that the deal is ON, they would have been buying at these low prices with no fear of being aigcused of illegal trading. But they have not bought yet, have they? So, one could realistically aigsume that the deal is not near at hand.
Day after day, week after week, month after month, we have waited and waited and continue to wait, with no resolution. If I rise in the morning, look out my window to the East, and see that the Sun has risen, and I do this for six days with identical results, then I need not look out the window on the seventh day to know that the Sun has once again risen in the East, with metaphysical certainty.
The one good thing going for many of us is time. Time and a little extra money are not only necessary, but usually sufficient conditions for success. While the utter failure of this manaigement to deliver has achieved a truly Baroque level of incompetence, betting on failure and selling now could bite us hard. Would it just not be like this crew to close the deal after heavy selling is noted? So, sad to say, the current position must be held. Besides, at these low levels, it's a little too late to try to play the game of guessing the actions of this crew.
My scenario for success, following the aforementioned Aignostotilian logic, would be to pray, to whatever Supreme Being we may believe in, that the deal FAILS. And then, as we watch the hemmorhaiging(do you like that one<g>)flow through the streets, we jump on this dog at low, low prices. For a fraction of most of our current position costs, one could average down to well under $.75, perhaps lower, were the stock to drift to the $.25 level.
Keep in mind, as hard as this is to believe, RTIN actually had earnings last quarter with only one restaurant open and the other three leased. Moreover, do you doubt for one moment that some stock pimp will pick up this little trollup at the quarter level and tout it for a run? Or do you doubt, as FB followed OSF steak house, that some other big deal would be waiting in the wings, with the encore of SWAN SONgS AIGing the price onward and upward?
I, for one, think the stock would be a tremendous opportunity at the 25 cent level. A modest number of shares and market cap, fully reporting to the SEC, and the ability to re-open the other three restaurants and produce decent earnings makes this an aigcellent pick at those levels. Moreover, the pimping that would occur would make a naval town look like a monastery.
The balloons would be launched and in those balloons, my good Howard, we would return to the land of E Pluribus Unum...with Toto too.
All of this is just my opinion of course.
TG |
